Private Economic Analysis 2021 – Scratchy through 2020 Both from the negative economic problems continuously for many years And even more so when I see COVID worse since the beginning of the year
In 2021, what direction will the Thai economy look like? Let’s hear the views of the private sector executives.
The Federation of Thai Industries expects the ERA to grow 2-4%
Mr. Suphan Mongkolsutee The president of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said that the Thai economy outlook for 2021 is better than that of 2020 under the control of the COVID-19 epidemic in the country from a second wave of epidemic control.
Because if unable to control the situation There is a possibility that the government will announce another country lockdown. Affecting various activities The economy has to halt.
“Personally, I believe that Thailand is unlikely to announce another lockdown again. Because there is now good news about the development of vaccines in foreign countries that have started trials in sick people. Expected to be more clear in 1Q2021, raising concerns over the spread of COVID-19. Should gradually relax “
The private sector expects the Thai economy to grow 2-4% in 2021, exports are expected to expand 3-5% and headline inflation is expected to expand 0.8-1.2%. “
In addition, it assesses the prospects for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to return to investing in Thailand in 2Q21 after a long delay from the impact of COVID-19.
However, the private sector is concerned about the appreciation of the baht stronger than other currencies in the same region. Except Australia where the currency is stronger than Thailand
Therefore, Thai exporters have to adjust their exports to Australia and look for more potential markets. Which the value of the baht required by the private sector is at the level of 32 baht / US dollar
Exporter – Bank worried about strong baht
Miss Kannaphak Tantipipattanaphong The chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (NRC) or the Exporters Council said that the OPEC expects the economy in 2021 to improve from 2020 because in 2020 there is an outbreak of COVID-19. World, but the year 2021 started using vaccines, so I think that various situations In the whole will be better
As for exports, although there is a shortage of containers. Or container This was partly due to a shortage of workers to move goods out of containers due to the COVID crisis. And partly it shows that the export of goods is going well and there is a high demand for containers.
Including various trading partners Has a policy to stimulate the economy Out of the US, Europe, as well as Asian countries. It ensures that the economy and exports in 2021 will improve.
What worries the private sector is the ongoing strong baht problem.
Mr. Phayong Srivanit President Krung Thai Bank revealed that in 2021 the outlook for the Thai economy (GDP) is highly uncertain with only 3% growth driven by the government. Which disbursement must be effective
At the same time, it is thought that the country will start to open tourism at the end of the third quarter, which the Bank of Thailand estimates, 9.5 million tourists will return, while the National Economic and Social Development Council or NESDB estimates 5.5 million.
For every 1 million tourists it affects GDP 0.5%, so the tourism sector will be a challenge next year. This is because tourism accounts for 20% of GDP and household debt is still high.
The Mall – Big C Chu Travel
Ms. Supalak Ampuch Executive Chairman of The Mall Group Company Limited said that the Thai economy in 2021 is the driver of the Thai economy like tourism. If the government does not do anything, there will definitely be problems
The government may have to consider opening the country wider. Under effective control measures In order to allow foreign tourists to travel in
“Although during this period there are many Thai people traveling and traveling Shopping more in the country But it certainly cannot replace the purchasing power from foreigners who come to Thailand up to 30 million people per year. Therefore, the government must dare to open up the country. Like limiting into zones Is a very cold “
However, GDP for 2021 is projected to be 3.5% – 4.5%. Positive factors come from Thai epidemic prevention and control measures. Along with the impulse from government measures
Mr. Aswin Techajareonvikul Chief Executive Officer and President of Big C Supercenter Public Company Limited, the BJC retail store, said the economic picture of Thailand and the world will not turn around rapidly. Due to the epidemic situation of COVID-19 And will still have an impact during the next 3 years
In addition, there are no foreign tourists to generate income, including tourism and services businesses. As well as the retail sector
Foreign travel will not return within 1-2 years of course, therefore the Thai economy has to be more self-reliant. By finding new economic drivers
Car camps hope ‘COVID vaccine’ comes quickly
Mr. Pitak Phritisarikon Chief Operating Officer of Honda Automobile (Thailand) Co., Ltd. said that the economic situation of the year 2021 is difficult to assess. If looking from the current situation Believed to be better but not noticeable COVID-19 vaccine It’s the only thing that can bring hope, which still doesn’t see a clear result. Which may affect the economy to continue to slow down
Mr. Surasak Suthongwan Senior Executive Vice President of Toyota Motor Thailand Co., Ltd. said that the economic outlook in Thailand has gradually improved. Most non-tourism-related provinces recovered almost entirely. As for tourist cities, it may take longer to come back.
The economy in 2021 is expected to be better than 2020, and if vaccine production is successful. Will be a catalyst for confidence to return quickly
Mr. Morikazushokki President of Mitsubishi Motors (Thailand) Co., Ltd. said that with the economic foundation of Thailand is very strong. Will help the economic situation Including the car market recovering quickly
Even though the market has shrunk considerably in 2020, by 2021, vaccine development will be a success so that COVID-19 will not have an impact on daily life.
Mr. Chanchai Trakarn Udomsuk Chief Executive Officer Mazda Sales (Thailand) Co., Ltd. said that originally in 2020 no one dares to assess the state of the economy. And what will the car market be like But in the end, when everything started to improve Causing the market to adjust continuously
We are convinced that this momentum will continue until next year 2021 and even if the COVID-19 vaccine Success This is a good sign.
However, the government should have clear stimulus measures. To build confidence among the people
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