Mexico City. The Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), calculated by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), estimated that private consumption in Mexico could not maintain its growth rate during August and September, which caused a slowdown in recent years. 12 months.
The IOCP predicts that the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) fell 0.1 percent monthly in September, after estimating an advance of 0.2 percent in August.
The Timely Indicator of Private Consumption forecast annual growth of 1.8 percent in September compared to the same month in 2023. Likewise, an advance of 2.7 percent was calculated for August, a better rate than the previous perspective of 1.6 percent. However, a significant slowdown in consumption is expected in the country.
This Wednesday, Inegi presented the results of the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption, which allows for timely econometric estimates on the evolution of the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption, of which Inegi will release the final data for August on November 4.
According to BBVA’s analysis area, private spending will continue to show slow dynamism in the second half of the year, given the slowdown in the real wage bill derived from slow employment growth in the industrial sector. In the first seven months of the year, the industry grew 1.1 percent annually, 2.3 percentage points below the figure registered in the same period of the previous year (3.4 percent), with manufacturing production being the component with the greatest lag.
“We consider that the slow dynamism of private consumption will extend into the following quarters, in an environment of lower growth in other segments of the economy (with transmission to the services sector). As a result of the slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, and the expectation of low growth for the second half, we estimate that GDP will register an annual variation of 1.2 percent by 2024,” predicts Saidé Salazar, economic analyst. from BBVA.
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