Mexico City. Economic analysts from the private sector consulted by the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) adjusted downwards for the fifth time the growth expectation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024, so that in October it stood at 1.40 percent.
According to the survey carried out by the central bank to 35 economic analysis and consulting groups from the national and foreign private sector, the Mexican economy at the end of this year will not be 1.46 percent as estimated in September.
The October data adds five consecutive downward events, after it remained without major variations between February and May, when it stood at 1.80 percent.
The survey also showed a decrease in the GDP estimate for 2025, as it went from 1.20 percent in September to 1.17 percent in the tenth month of the year.
Specialists consider that the main factors that could hinder Mexico’s economic growth in the next six months are governance, external conditions and internal economic conditions.
In particular, they considered internal political uncertainty as factors; public insecurity problems; and the lack of rule of law.
However, the most worrying factor is governance, mainly due to insecurity problems and internal political uncertainty.
General and underlying inflation expectations for the end of 2024 and 2025 remained at levels close to those of the previous survey.
Experts estimated in October that general inflation will close at 4.45 percent in 2024, a figure that is slightly higher than the 4.44 percent forecast in September.
For the following year, the inflation level is expected to be 3.80 percent, a figure that did not vary with respect to the survey for the ninth month of the year.
Regarding underlying inflation, they estimated that it will be 3.80 percent at the end of this year, a lower figure compared to the 3.83 percent reported in September.
For the following year, the analysts consulted predict that this index, which determines the trajectory of general inflation in the medium and long term, will be 3.70 percent, a figure that did not show greater monthly variation.
The survey also shows that at the end of this year the exchange rate will be 19.80 pesos per dollar, a figure that was higher than the 19.66 pesos per unit of the US currency reported in September.
By 2025, experts also foresee a depreciation of the Mexican currency, as they placed a price at 20 pesos, when in September they still estimated that the exchange rate would be at 19.81 pesos.
Furthermore, the number of specialists who believe that the business climate will remain the same in the next 6 months decreased compared to the previous month, while the proportion of specialists who think that the current situation of the economy is no better than a year ago increased with compared to the previous month.
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