Prime Minister François Legault’s Modest Background and Cash Checks: A Short-Term Solution?

Of course, today the envelopes no longer contain cash, but checks. The long message from the Prime Minister on Facebook therefore contains a meticulous enumeration of all the checks that the Legault government has sent to citizens.

From the elections, $200 for the elderly, then $120 for the parents for the start of the school year. And $500 to almost everyone for inflation, then another check for $600 for the less well off and $400 for everyone else, and $2,000 for the “less well off” seniors.

Mr. Legault continued by listing all the tax cuts and tariff reductions granted since he became government. Which might not have been the right thing to do under the circumstances.

First, because many economists believe that sending everyone a check for $500 has an inflationary effect rather than countering inflation since it will encourage consumption and therefore even more inflation. When we receive an unexpected sum of money, we often tend to spend it quickly.

But also because sending checks on an ad hoc basis does not have a structuring effect such as targeted recurring tax cuts or an increase in certain government benefits. Similarly, a 1% tax cut for all citizens will necessarily have a much greater effect on the wealthiest.

That being said, what was particularly evident in the Prime Minister’s long message on Facebook: “Look at all the money that your good CAQ government has put in your little envelopes. A management that looks more like “one problem, one check” than a long-term vision, but it is the government’s choice.

Except that one can wonder if such an enumeration will give the image of a head of government in control and who is preparing to guide Quebecers towards a happier tomorrow, after the current difficult economic situation.

In fact, reading Mr. Legault’s text, someone arriving in Quebec after a long absence would be entitled to think that things are going very badly and that the government is constantly on the defensive.

But the reality is quite different. Voting intentions for the CAQ are in good shape, satisfaction with the government remains high and the Prime Minister himself is, by far, the favorite among party leaders.

The CAQ will undergo its first electoral test at the beginning of October during the by-election in the riding of Jean-Talon. Normally, it could be a tough test with a CAQ member who thumbed her nose at her constituents and jumped ship less than a year after the last election. The abandonment of the third link project could also have disappointed CAQ voters.

But, when we look at the pace of the campaign, we see something quite different. Even if things can change, there is currently no indication that the constituency could go into opposition.

In fact, everything in the attitude of the opposition parties indicates that, for them, it is above all a race for second place. But their strategies are rather difficult to follow.

Thus, the Parti Québécois chose a candidate who had seriously flirted with a candidacy for the CAQ a few months ago. What’s more, this candidate is now making all sorts of allegations – which he obviously cannot prove – about the fact that the Prime Minister’s entourage told him several months ago that the third link would be abandoned. . A controversy that only reminds voters that his PQ allegiance has not always been very solid.

With polls that place it in second place in voting intentions, the PQ has raised the stakes since the start of the campaign, which means that if this second place escapes it, it will be rather disappointing.

In Québec solidaire, which finished second in last year’s election, the best scenario would be to repeat this result. But the party seems to be treading water for several months and the leader’s increasingly strident tone is not a good sign.

As for the Liberal Party, with 5% of the vote among Francophones, Jean-Talon’s partial looks like a scenario of Mission : impossibleeven though it is a traditionally liberal seat.

In short, less than a year after the last election, the Prime Minister and his party are far from having a bad time. And if the criticisms of the opposition bother him to this point, he will find that the next few months will be very long.