Prigozhin’s marketing campaign failed, however his calls for had been partially met / Article

Within the 12 months because the Russian mercenary group “Wagner” marched on Moscow and turned again simply as rapidly, there are numerous sudden and fewer anticipated issues. The truth that the revolution is not going to flip right into a coup turned clear solely after the top of the personal military, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stopped his “justice march” 200 kilometers from Moscow.

The following query was how lengthy Prigozhin would reside and whether or not there could be a hunt for spies within the military and within the Kremlin. Prigozhin lived one other two months, however the management of the Russian military has already gone by means of thorough purges, the previous Minister of Protection Sergei Shoigu, who resigned Prigozhin as he was marching to Moscow, didn’t he’s now not in workplace. Different programs of “Wagner” awardees are additionally totally different.

The “Wagnerian” march was given with enthusiasm by many

On the night of June 23, 2023, the mercenary group “Wagner”, which was an essential navy drive for Russia within the struggle in Ukraine, entered the territory of Russia and took over the town of Rostov-on-Don with the headquarters of the Southern Army District positioned there.

The following day, the group additionally entered the Voronezh area and rapidly superior to Moscow. At the moment, the steadiness of the “Wagnerians” had been already six Russian military helicopters and one transport airplane, in addition to not less than 15 killed Russian navy personnel.

Prigozhin’s purpose was to overthrow the Russian navy management and Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu. It’s thought-about that the principle cause for Prigozhin’s motion was that July 1 was approaching, by which period the “Wagner” group needed to signal a contract with the Ministry of Protection. Such a transfer could be seen because the dissolution of the mercenary group within the Russian military.

On the best way to Moscow, the “Wagnerians” not solely didn’t meet a lot navy resistance, however additionally they acquired the implicit enthusiasm of the individuals.

It additionally raised excessive hopes exterior of Russia, as Prigozhin’s revolution was more likely to carry down Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. True, Prigozhin himself was not a “dove of peace” who wished to finish the struggle in Ukraine. Then again, his complaints in opposition to the Kremlin and the navy management had been associated to the truth that the assault on Ukraine was not efficient sufficient. Prigozhin’s personal military was recognized for its ruthlessness and brutality, demonstrated not solely in Ukraine, but additionally earlier within the Center East and Africa.

Putin’s revenge was not lengthy in coming

However Prigozhin’s revolution ended as rapidly because it had begun. On the night of June 24, Prigozhin introduced that he was halting the “march of justice” to Moscow and ordered his forces to return to their unique positions. As a cause for ending the revolution, Prigozhin mentioned that he didn’t wish to enable Russian blood to be spilled. Almost certainly, he had realized that the steadiness of energy in Moscow wouldn’t be on his aspect.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko participated as a mediator in Prigozhin’s talks with the Kremlin. It was quickly introduced that Prigozhin would go to Belarus together with his mercenaries, however the felony case in opposition to them was closed. This occurred even if Putin, through the coup, has promised to severely punish “state traitors” and Prigozhin’s activists had been answerable for the demise of the Russian military airplane crew that went to shoot down on the best way.

Prigozhin himself didn’t have to attend lengthy for Putin’s revenge. Simply two months after the beginning of the revolution, on August 23, 2023, Prigozhin’s personal airplane crashed within the Tver area.

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Prigozhin, the founding father of “Vagner” Dmitry Utkin, a number of bodyguards and members of the staff died within the airplane crash.

Putin blamed Prigozhin’s airplane crash on “rigorously dealing with a hand grenade,” however there was little doubt that it was Putin’s revenge on Prigozhin for daring to problem the Kremlin. The US newspaper “The Wall Road Journal” later wrote that Prigozhin’s airplane was shot down by a small bomb; This operation was launched by Putin’s ally, Nikolai Patrushev.

The group “Wagner” is split into elements

The precise variety of fighters within the “Wagner” group will not be recognized. In the beginning of 2023, US and British intelligence companies estimated about 50 thousand, most of them prisoners of struggle in Russian colonies who had been promised amnesty after half a 12 months of struggle in Ukraine, however didn’t however a small variety of them are skilled fighters. .

“Wagner” models in Ukraine suffered heavy losses – in accordance with the estimates of the British broadcasting firm BBC, about 20,000 “Wagnerians” fell at Bakhmut alone. The BBC, which collects all publicly obtainable details about Russian troopers who died in Ukraine, calculates that one in three of the useless talked about got here from “Wagner”. On the similar time, some rewarders are nonetheless positioned in several nations of the world, the place contracts had been concluded with the “Wagnerians”.

The director of the Geopolitical Analysis Heart and a visiting researcher at Harvard College, Māris Andzhans, tells the LSM portal that there isn’t any dependable data on what number of “Wagnerians” went to Belarus after the failure of the revolution.

One half is understood to have skilled Belarusian safety companies there; a part of them could also be employed within the armed forces of Belarus.

Some have returned to Russia, the place they’ve been built-in into different navy constructions, and a few have gone to Syria and Africa.

The publication “Politico” wrote, citing nameless sources within the US intelligence, that the outdated “Wagnerians” are divided into 4 teams, certainly one of which is preventing in Ukraine, two of that are underneath the management of the Ministry of Protection of the Russia and the intelligence companies of Moscow, and the fourth is the Central Intelligence Company of the Basic Employees of Russia (GRU) a mercenary group Redut that works to take over the work of Wagner’s former forces in a number of African nations.

“Wagner” maintained its presence in Africa

The Russian journalist Ilya Barabanov has written the guide “Our Enterprise – Loss of life” concerning the historical past and bloody enterprise of the Wagner group. It was written primarily based on documentary proof and testimonies of outdated “Wagnerians”. In a dialog with LSM, Barabanov explains that “Wagner” now not works as a separate group on the Ukrainian entrance. What might be seen prior to now 12 months is how the Prigozhin empire was destroyed.

A few of the “Wagnerians” signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Protection and continued to serve within the ranks of the Russian forces. For instance, this occurred to these mercenaries working in Syria.

“Some have left for Chechen constructions, within the “Ahmat” battalions created by Kadyrov; some have stayed on the territory of​​​​Belarus, however it’s a utterly small group. , those that stay, has been capable of keep a presence in some African nations, however not in all,” defined Barabanov.

“We see that within the Central African Republic and, for instance, in Mali, that the presence of “Wagner” continues. However it’s clear that it’s no longer as huge because it was when Prigozhin lives.” Baranov emphasizes that the inhabitants working in Syria or some African nations is small, it’s round tens or a whole bunch of individuals, relying on the nation, however definitely not hundreds.

Russia is now not hiding its intentions

Andzhan, alternatively, says that the management of the Russian Ministry of Protection accompanied the accountable common of the GRU intelligence service on a tour of Africa, apparently to advertise these navy junta regimes, that nothing adjustments. , perhaps even getting higher. Beforehand, the group “Wagner” with an unclear standing was wanted by the Kremlin to cover the presence of Russia in varied soiled jobs, Andzhan explains, however now Russia is now not hiding.

“Similar to in Ukraine, when Russia hid after 2014 and mentioned they aren’t us in Donbass, in the identical manner, in Africa you would deny, say perhaps that they’re Russian residents, nevertheless it has nothing to do with the federal government. .”

Now the scenario has modified and Russia is working overtly. The demand for Russian companies in Africa has even elevated, the researcher concludes. “Russia now acts as an insurer and bodyguard for navy juntas and dictators, the place Russian forces subtly however successfully keep order in alternate for entry to pure assets.

“Politico” signifies another excuse for utilizing mercenary teams. For Prigozhin, contracts in Africa had been the supply of giant income from gold mines and oil extraction, however Russia, with the assistance of mercenaries, can be making an attempt to alter the scenario within the worldwide enviornment -balance and cut back the affect of the US in African nations. .

Putin has applied Prigozhin’s calls for

Deputy Minister of Protection of Russia Timur Ivanov, Head of the Central Communications Division of the Ministry of Protection Yury Kuznetsov, Chief of the Central Communications Division of the Armed Forces Viktors Shamarins, former commander of the 58th Military Main Basic Ivan Popov, Head of the Command Division of the Ministry of Protection Vladimir Verteleckis – these are probably the most outstanding of the current “cleaning” “victims underneath the management of the Russian military. Putin’s accomplice Sergei Shoigu, who was changed within the new authorities by Andrei Belousov, will not be an economist who was not beforehand related to the navy, additionally held the place of Minister of Defence.

Such personnel adjustments are partially what Prigozhin requested a 12 months in the past, Andzhan says. Putin himself understood the explanations for Russia’s failure in Ukraine.

“He additionally understood very nicely himself the place he grows, that there’s uncommon corruption and unhealthy administration within the military. Due to this fact, Putin has applied a few of Prigozhin’s requests within the months handed,” Andzhan concludes.

Nevertheless, evidently Putin didn’t need everybody to see that he was complying with Prigozhin’s calls for, maybe he didn’t need any operational interruption, so he didn’t instantly adjust to Prigozhin’s calls for.

The affect of the group “Wagner” and the dearth of compliance had been the explanations for the Kremlin’s considerations even earlier than the revolution, however after the occasions of final 12 months, the Kremlin is doing all something to stop the same scenario from occurring once more sooner or later.

“It’s clear that the group has been utterly dismantled in Russia. Putin or his successor is not going to enable such a factor to occur once more, that’s, is not going to enable them with the creation of such a strong personal group,” says Andzhan.