If finding the Hawks in the playoffs is not totally a surprise as the recruitment of the 2020 offseason had been ambitious, the Atlanta franchise especially owes this fifth place in the East in the standings to his change of coach in mid-season. season.
And it’s an understatement to say that almost nobody expected the Knicks in the playoffs, and even less with a nice fourth place synonymous with home advantage in the first round. Here again, the change of coach was decisive with the arrival of Tom Thibodeau.
This series, the first between the two teams since 1999 (New York then won 4-0) is therefore as surprising on paper as it is indecisive and appetizing on the floor. You might think that New York has already had a successful season, but Tom Thibodeau’s men look like their coach: they are ambitious and fighters.
For their part, the Hawks want to build on their good momentum and lay the foundations for the years to come with an already full squad and established young stars. This first round is therefore a godsend for each of the two franchises to find a conference semi-final, which has not been the case since 2016 for Atlanta and 2013 for New York.
PRESENTATION OF KNICKS
The starting five : E. Payton, R. Bullock, R. Barrett, J. Randle, N. Noel
The bench : D. Rose, A. Burks, F. Ntilikina, T. Gibson, I. Quickley, M. Robinson, O. Toppin
The coach : Tom Thibodeau
A remarkable, surprising and consistent season. We can thus take stock of this 2020/2021 exercise for the Knicks. Transformed by Tom Thibodeau, this workforce almost identical to that of last year has been transformed by an iron defense and the explosion of its leader, Julius Randle. The former interior of the Lakers and Pelicans became All-Star and he took the light for a group that played hard, typically in the spirit of the big Knicks teams. They also beat the odds because the chances of the playoffs were low before the start of the season. But at the dawn of this first round, it is not unthinkable to imagine the New York players passing it …
POINTS FORTS
Defense. This was to be expected and the Knicks clearly needed it. The arrival of Thibodeau on the bench meant one thing above all: the team was going to start defending. The former coach of the Bulls and Wolves put his paw on his team like that and the result is convincing. The Knicks have the best defense in the league in points conceded per game (104.7) and third in efficiency (108.2 points taken out of 100 possessions). Last season, in these two areas, the team was respectively 18th and 23rd… It communicates a lot, it adds intensity and the opposing percentages fall in the face of such pressure.
The duo Julius Randle – RJ Barrett. The former became an All-Star, compiled magnificent numbers (24.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 6 assists on average) and above all behaved like a leader, assuming his responsibilities in the important moments. The second (17.6 points per game) was more discreet, increasing in power. Without making too much noise, the Canadian aligned clean exits, without waste in the shoot or in the lost balls, with regularity and adjusted his outside shot (47% success at 3-pts since the beginning of April). These two blades, in different styles, do a lot of damage to the tusks.
WEAK POINTS
The attack. Although the Randle – Barrett duo are performing well, the Knicks are struggling to make the difference offensively. It is their defense that does most of the work because by posting only the 26th most effective attack (110.6 points out of 100 possessions), New York shows limits. They keep pace in particular. The worst in the league. Thibodeau’s troops run little, shoot only rarely in first intention. It is a quality in the playoffs, where the pace decreases, but to shake up an opposing defense, it is important to surprise it before it is in place. Especially since in front, Trae Young is not a great defender and we will have to take advantage of it.
Rebound protection. The Knicks have the ability to quench an attack and force tough shots, but they suffer to finish the job by gobbling up the rebound. They are not sovereign in this area, the fault in particular of a lack of size in this group (Mitchell Robinson, the largest player in the workforce with his 2m13, is injured). Nerlens Noel (2m11) is therefore a little isolated in the high altitudes and the effort must be collective to compensate.
PRESENTATION OF THE HAWKS
The starting five : T. Young, K. Huerter, B. Bogdanovic, J. Collins, C. Capela
The bench : D. Gallinari, T. Snell, C. Reddish, D. Hunter, L. Williams, O. Okongwu, S. Hill
The coach : Nate McMillan
The Hawks’ season was played out in two stages. Before and after March 1st. That day, Lloyd Pierce takes the door and Nate McMillan replaces him. With 14 wins and 20 losses, Atlanta is disappointing despite the ambitions and a change is needed. With McMillan and despite an infirmary that had trouble emptying completely, the Hawks found color, saw Lou Williams arrive in exchange for Rajon Rondo and concluded the second part of the season with a record of 27 successes and 11 losses. The dynamic is therefore positive before tackling this first series of playoffs since 2017.
POINTS FORTS
The impact of Clint Capela. There have been a lot of changes between the 2019/2020 Hawks and the 2020/2021 Hawks but perhaps the most important is the place taken by the Swiss pivot. Defensive stabilizer, for a suffering team on this side of the field and to protect on pick-and-roll a feverish Young, Capela became the Minister of Defense with his communication and his rebounds (14.3 average, number one in the league ). His presence in front of the circle alone has advanced Atlanta defensively. Offensively, he is also invaluable in a role similar to the one he had in Houston: making screens, catching lobed passes from the point guard or taking the crumbs on offensive rebound.
Shooters everywhere. With Young, Huerter, Bogdanovic, Snell or Gallinari and Williams, the Hawks attack is rich in snipers. The Pelicans can attest to this, they who cashed an 11/11 (NBA record) in a quarter last April. When the ball goes around, the screens are set and the passes secure, McMillan’s players bombard and smash defenses behind the arc.
WEAK POINTS
The lack of experience. The dynamics are certainly positive for the Hawks but if the coach has been changed, it is good that problems existed. One of the main things was the continuity because of the injuries. Already it was necessary to build a new collective with the recruits, but in addition the infirmary was constantly full, week after week, and inevitably, it was necessary to tinker and do with the presents. The group lacks common experience, benchmarks. Another inexperience, that in the playoffs. Bogdanovic, Young or even Huerter and Collins do not know the playoffs.
The management of “money time”. Even with a talent like Trae Young or with experienced players, the Hawks have not always managed to conclude correctly. The figures show it : when the game becomes very tight, with a possession gap in the last five minutes (30 occurrences this season), Atlanta struggles and is often dominated (18 losses and a +/- of – 58!). A big downside in the playoffs where each match counts double.
SERIES KEYS
Who to defend on Julius Randle? The question would have been legitimate for any opponent of the Knicks, but it arises even more for the Hawks. Because during the three matches between the two teams in the regular season, the New York All-Star was delighted with an average of 37.3 points at 58% success in shooting and 50% at 3-pts. No wonder the Knicks won all three duels. With his mobility, his power and his skill, Randle is difficult to take for this workforce. Taking two too often remains risky and letting him play and cut the rest of the team remains dangerous. Nate McMillan is going to have to rack his brains to contain it.
The impact of veterans. For Randle and Barrett on one side or Trae Young and John Collins on the other, it’s baptism of fire. These young talents are discovering the playoffs. They are coached by experienced coaches (56 postseason games for Thibodeau, 53 for McMillan), but we cannot replace such an experience. You have to live it. Fortunately, they have veterans in this field to support them. Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson, in addition to their proximity to their coach, will be essential, when Williams, Gallinari and Capela are honed in these spring series. As most are also in substitute roles, it is also a bench duel.
What du public? After a season of playing in empty rooms or with sparsely filled bays, the Hawks and Knicks will begin the series with 15,000 people around them in Madison Square Garden! Knicks fans have been deprived of the playoffs since 2013 and their presence will inevitably please the players and bring more. Atlanta will also have support, even a little more with a 95% room full, needed for the second part of the series, starting with Game 3, especially if the first two have gone bad. So which team will best benefit from its fans?
REGULAR SEASON
January 4: Atlanta – New York (108-113)
February 15: New York – Atlanta (123-112)
21 avril : New York – Atlanta (137-127)
VERDICT
Holders of the same records (41-31: 25-11 at home and 16-20 away), the two teams could well embark on a long and stuck series. None has recent references in the playoffs and the young stars are virgins of these high-stakes matches. It is therefore very difficult to know how the scenario will evolve.
However, with their consistency displayed during the season, their style adapted to the playoffs, their home advantage which counts even more with the return of the public and a Julius Randle at this level, the Knicks seem better equipped than the Hawks to cross this first milestone. . The latter certainly have a good dynamic in the legs and a copious workforce (when there are no injuries), but the lack of collective cohesion and the average management of hot moments can weigh heavily. Nate McMillan is also not known to be a coach who makes caps in the playoffs (only one series won in his career, in 2005 with Seattle). This is what cost him his place in the Pacers …
We can expect a series focused on the half-court game, with scores under 100 points, and why not a Game 7. But the Knicks, without complexes, can really dream of a second round and continue to live a season in the clouds, and cloudless.
New York 4-2
CALENDAR
Game 1 : in New York, Sunday, May 23 (1:00 a.m., in the night from Sunday to Monday)
Game 2 : in New York, Wednesday May 26 (1:30 a.m., Wednesday to Thursday night in France)
Game 3 : in Atlanta, Friday May 28 (1:00 a.m., Friday to Saturday night in France)
Game 4 : in Atlanta, Sunday May 30 (7:00 p.m. in France)
Game 5* : in New York, Wednesday June 2 (to be determined)
Game 6* : in Atlanta, Friday June 4 (to be determined)
Game 7* : in New York, Sunday June 6 (to be determined)
* If necessary.
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