We expected the Nets and the Sixers in the conference finals, and finally the Bucks and Hawks beat the odds. It must be said that they took advantage of a helping hand since Milwaukee faced a private formation first of James Harden, then of Kyrie Irving, while Atlanta challenged the private Sixers since Danny’s Game 3 Green and with a diminished Joel Embiid. But, the two teams went to seek their qualification outside, in a boiling atmosphere, and they deserve their place in the conference final.
For the Bucks, it’s a real liberation after the heavy failure against the Heat in 2020, and even this loss in the conference final in 2019 after leading 2-0 to the Raptors. This time, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s teammates have all the cards in hand to go to the final. For the Hawks, that’s just a bonus since winning the Knicks in the first round. Like Trae Young, Atlanta combines enthusiasm, youth and strength of character. Enough to create a third surprise?
PRESENTATION OF BUCKS
The starting five: J. Holiday, K. Middleton, G. Antetokounmpo, P.J. Tucker, B. Lopez.
The bench : J. Teague, B. Forbes, P. Connaughton, B. Portis.
The coach: M. Budenholzer.
Only one absent from the Bucks: Donte DiVincenzo, their holder at the back position. To replace him, Mike Budenholzer has not decided to make the post for post against the Nets. It was PJ Tucker who invited himself into the five, especially to take care of Kevin Durant, and Khris Middleton played more at the back.
For the rest, it’s classic, and Milwaukee relies on a group of eight, nine players while Bobby Portis has disappeared against Brooklyn! Without him, the Bucks overthrew the Nets, but it will undoubtedly be necessary to revive him to put him back in confidence, and to blow Giannis Antetokounmpo in anticipation of a possible NBA final.
POINTS FORTS
A trio of stars at the top. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday did not fail against the Nets, and although there were some complicated passages, they have this ability to go beyond their role. These three are remarkable defenders, and it doesn’t have to be all three of them having a big offensive night for the Bucks to come out on top. We saw him in Game 7 with a very clumsy Jrue Holiday, but ultra-important in his defense over James Harden. The good news is that all three are very healthy, and again Game 7 has shown their endurance to be valuable in overtime.
A newfound defense. To “sweep” the Heat in the first round, the Bucks had been able to count, on the one hand, on a fire attack (115 points scored out of 100 possessions) and, on the other hand, on an iron defense (95 points conceded out of 100 possessions). Against the Nets, the offense was not at the same level, but the defense was remarkable, conceding 107.3 points for 100 possessions. It’s 10 points less for the Nets, the best offense of the regular season. Milwaukee is tough defense, effective in all sectors, and no team can match their five.
The first quarter. The Bucks have the ability to successfully start the game with a differential of +17.2 points out of 100 possessions. It’s obviously huge, and unlike the Sixers, Khris Middleton’s teammates have the ability not to flinch.
WEAK POINTS
The half court game. Like Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks love to run, throw themselves forward, and score quickly. But in the playoffs, the defenses take precedence, and it’s been three years now that Milwaukee appears borrowed on placed play. Over the meetings against the Nets, the Greek has adapted, and he abandoned the 3-point shoot to punish at mid-distance or provoke near the circle. Renowned for his 3-pointers, Milwaukee must gain patience on a placed attack. Here again, Giannis Antetokounmpo is targeted, since he is at 1 in 13 at 3-points when there are more than 18 seconds left on the clock.
The Bobby Portis case. It is the great disappeared of the rotation when he had made a good regular season and turned 11 pts and 5 rebounds on average against the Heat. The problem is, he has defensive absences, and Mike Budenholzer has thrown him squarely off the bench. We haven’t seen him since Game 4, but against the Hawks, he should return to the rotation to respond to Danilo Gallinari. Atlanta trusts their bench more than Brooklyn, and Bobby Portis will have a role to play.
PRESENTATION OF THE HAWKS
The starting five : T. Young, K. Huerter, B. Bogdanovic, J. Collins, C. Capela
The bench : D. Gallinari, T. Snell, C. Reddish, L. Williams, O. Okongwu, S. Hill
The coach : Nate McMillan
The Hawks’ season was played out in two stages. Before and after March 1st. That day, Lloyd Pierce takes the door and Nate McMillan replaces him. With 14 wins and 20 losses, Atlanta is disappointing despite the ambitions of the fall and a change is needed.
With Nate McMillan and despite an infirmary that struggled to empty itself completely, the Hawks found color, saw Lou Williams arrive in exchange for Rajon Rondo and concluded the second part of the season with a record of 27 successes and 11 losses ( 3rd NBA record over this period). After beating the Knicks and the Sixers, Phoenix is the most confident team in the last four. The only worry, the knee of Bogdan Bogdanovic.
POINTS FORTS
Le pick-and-roll. After James Harden at the Rockets, it’s Trae Young’s turn to enjoy Clint Capela’s screens and rolls. The Swiss put up big screens for his leader, and then it’s up to him to read the reaction of the defense. Same role for John Collins who has the advantage of being able to play “pick-and-pop” to vary the pleasures. For Trae Young, it is a treat since he can sanction at 3-points, by “floaters” or lobed passes for his interiors. In Milwaukee, we just stood up to the Heat and then the Nets, and Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez are very good defenders, able to defend well on the pick-and-roll.
Trust. The Hawks are already happy to be there, and they’re typically the kind of tough opponents to control. Especially since the players do not hesitate to open it, like Trae Young and Clint Capela in the first round, then John Collins in the second with his T-Shirt tribute to his dunk on Joel Embiid. The Hawks already know their season is successful, and an NBA Finals is not an end, unlike the Bucks.
WEAK POINTS
Defense on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. The Hawks do not have, on paper, a player capable of holding back Giannis Antetokounmpo. Like the Nets, the Hawks can choose to leave him off, but we saw that the Greek had been able to adapt, and the Capela-Collins duo may be in trouble.
Inexperience. Even if the Hawks now have two series in their legs, four players from the starting five are discovering the playoffs. They are young, they are full of talent, but they come across an ogre! The Bucks are kind of the anti-Hawks, and they seem to have learned the lessons of the past as we saw against the Heat in the first round. Out of the bench, the Williams-Gallinari duo is experienced, but they are playing their first conference final, and they will be tough against them.
Getting around Milwaukee. The Hawks haven’t won in Milwaukee for five years. Granted, it was in the regular season, and the players and coaches have obviously changed, but the Young-Collins-Huerter trio never won in Wisconsin.
SERIES KEYS
La Défense sur Trae Young. After having foiled the plans of the Sixers and the great arms of Ben Simmons, Trae Young will find himself facing a more classic defender, but just as effective: Jrue Holiday. The leader of the Hawks must be prepared to suffer, and to see mobile players appear in front of him with a big stature. But even clumsy and / or well-defended, Trae Young has immense influence over a game, but if the Bucks can hold him back, all of Atlanta will be coughing.
The physical impact. The Bucks just won a points fight in a heavyweight clash. Milwaukee is very, very, very strong, and in every position. We repeat, but the physical density of this group is enormous, and it is no coincidence that Milwaukee is number 1 in the rebound in these playoffs, and number 2 in defense. There is scope, intimidation, but also size and experience. A cocktail that can make the Hawks explode on both sides of the court.
REGULAR SEASON
January 25: Milwaukee – Atlanta (129-115)
16 avril : Atlanta – Milwaukee (109-120)
26 avril : Atlanta – Milwaukee (111-104)
VERDICT
The Bucks have passed the biggest hurdle, and the Hawks appear to lack the physique and defense to stand up to them. Trae Young must expect a much more muscular treatment, and he’s going to have to contend with a multi-layered defense that perfectly locks in access to the circle. In Atlanta, no one has the talent of a Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving or James Harden to create their own shots and rock the Bucks defense.
We have seen that Trae Young, by his creation, and by his understanding with his two interiors, could be influential without scoring points. But over the duration of a series, he will need another player who can make a difference in the one-on-one. Lou Williams can do it but he’s not as punchy as the Clippers anymore, and Bogdan Bogdanovic has a squeaky knee, and that will limit his impact. Under the panels, John Collins and Clint Capela will weigh more than the Nets, and perhaps it is through them, by their complementarity and their complicity with Trae Young, that the salvation of Atlanta will come.
Milwaukee 4-1
CALENDAR
Game 1 : in Milwaukee, Tuesday June 23 (2:30 a.m., Tuesday to Wednesday night in France)
Game 2 : in Milwaukee, Thursday, June 25 (2:30 a.m.)
Game 3 : in Atlanta, Saturday June 27 (2:30 a.m.)
Game 4 : in Atlanta, Monday, June 29 (2:30 a.m.)
Game 5* : in Milwaukee, Wednesday July 1 (2:30 a.m.)
Game 6* : in Atlanta, Friday, July 3 (2:30 a.m.)
Game 7* : in Milwaukee, Sunday July 5 (2:30 a.m.)
* If necessary.
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