The protest is intensifying in France. The political scientist Dominique Reynié is in the front row to observe it, he who surveys opinion every semester. In its second barometer of 2020 (3,000 people questioned), 79% of French people say they want to express a protest vote in the first round of the presidential election of 2022. Either they will support Marine Le Pen, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Workers’ struggle, NPA or Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Either they will abstain or vote blank.
“Giletjaunisation” of the electorate
Dominique Reynié attributes this strong populist push to two main factors: the wear and tear of political alternation, which never produced the expected effects, and a « giletjaunisation » of the electorate for two years, against a centralized system and excessive taxation.
These voting intentions do not mean that all French people support Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Above all, they want to give “a warning shot” to “traditional” parties. “By 2022, the players will therefore have to renew themselves, be able to define strong actions, develop a vision of the world. Otherwise the election may be tense. “
Is this renewal, however, possible? Dominique Reynié doubts: “Our elected officials no longer know how to stop, restore order in their ideas, meditate. They are constantly in a chase against each other. “
The political scientist fears that the economic crisis will further amplify this disenchantment. He sees as proof the strong surge in voting intentions for Marine Le Pen among 18-24 year olds: 24% currently, ten points more than a year ago.
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