© Diary
–
Runoff in the presidential election between Rumen Radev and Prof. Anastas Gerdjikov despite the significant distance between the main contenders for head of state. This is shown by the data from a survey of “Alpha Research”, conducted from November 7 to 9 among 1,017 adult citizens from all over the country through a direct standardized interview with tablets in the homes of the respondents.
See the attitudes towards the parliamentary vote here.
The poll reports three trends – increased mobilization for the parliamentary vote, which a week before election day attracted more interest than the presidential race; consolidation of party nuclei during the campaign and a battle for electoral periphery in the last week before the vote and a significant distance between the main contenders for head of state, but insufficient mobilization to exit the presidential election in one round. The analysis of “Alpha Research” states that the attitudes of the voters give complete clarity to the general picture, but the unknowns are more than the definitely known ones.
Five days before election day 47% – 48% of the people with the right to vote in the country are ready to take part in the vote, while others about a quarter are hesitant to go to the polls. According to the analysis of sociologists, the mutual influence and overlap between the presidential and parliamentary campaigns in combination with the accompanying scandals, the health and socio-economic crises return the interest of the voters to the battle for parliament. While at the beginning of the campaign the presidential vote focused more attention, now those who have decided to support the party list outnumber the participants in the presidential election by about 2 points.
The situation around the presidential election is clearer than that of the parliamentary elections (For details on who enters the 47th National Assembly, see here).
Rumen Radev, who is fighting for a second term, has the largest advance and support of 46.4%, but also with more difficulties compared to a month earlier. On the one hand, the challenge before him is the chilled enthusiasm for this vote, which will hardly exceed the 50% turnout needed to end the elections in one round. On the other hand, the growing frustration with the actions of the caretaker government in recent weeks (especially on the health crisis, inflation, electricity prices) has shaken the determination of some of its supporters. The strongest supporters of Rumen Radev are the supporters of BSP and “We continue the change”. However, among the wider periphery, which will be very important for the second round, there is some cracking, the study said.
In the second round the runoff will be between Rumen Radev and Anastas Gerdjikov. The rector of Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski” enters the last week of the campaign with support of 28.3%, which comes mainly from GERB-UDF supporters, representatives of the intelligentsia, liberal professions and academic circles.
MRF leader Mustafa Karadayi (8.8%) and Supreme Court of Cassation Chairman Lozan Panov (6.9%) are the other two candidates with a more significant share of supporters. However, they, as well as the leader of “Vazrazhdane” Kostadin Kostadinov (3.2%), suffer from the effect of increased interest in the parliamentary at the expense of the presidential race and currently have lower support than the formations behind them, the analysis said.
These tendencies make the outcome of the runoff depend not only on the outcome of the first round, but also on the positions of the political parties and the ability of the two leading candidates to mobilize voters outside the circle of their strong supporters.
Everything you need to know about the 2 in 1 election – read here.
*The study of “Alpha Research” was conducted in the period from 7 to 9 November with its own funds. It was held among 1,017 adult citizens from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota on the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through a direct standardized interview with tablets in the homes of the respondents.
–
