There is no doubt that the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, has a supportive technical team that has a long experience in dealing with crises and how to get out of them, made up of Hezbollah and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. On the shore of the presidential elections, the tide and tides (the stillness movement on the letter Z) brought Franjieh closer to Baabda at times and distanced him at times, and this is the same situation in which the army commander, General Joseph Aoun, found himself in, with an essential difference, which is that the Shiite duo was not in Its angle, although there is no runner event. The aforementioned duo decided to adopt the long breath, which is the policy they adopted for many years to cut through harsh stages that they encountered, the most important of which was the year 2005 with the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and the subsequent events and developments.
Today, after many people mourned Franjieh’s chances of reaching the presidency, talk has returned of his chances rising under French pressure, while the American position on the issue is still ambiguous, which casts many doubts about the success of the “compassionate mother” pressure, especially since Washington does not hide its preference The army commander is on Franjieh and she is satisfied with him, with his fortunes rising due to Hezbollah’s non-objection, but the party’s preference remains for Franjieh, and he stood up for that in the face of everyone, including the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Representative Gebran Bassil. Can it be said that General Aoun’s chances are nil?
After the question was asked to a well-known political figure, the answer was negative, while acknowledging that his success rate may have declined somewhat, but it has not been fully developed, and unless the American administration says its word on the matter, the matter will not be resolved, no matter what is said and no matter how much France, Europe and others try. Because the Americans still have strings capable of obstructing any agreement or settlement that takes place without their consent, a fact that cannot be overlooked. And the political figure adds that the army commander is currently adopting a “defensive” strategy, so he reduced his media appearances, launching positions and conducting meetings, without stopping them completely, and therefore he completely adopted what Franjieh adopted in the previous period before returning to the arena with force. In fact, what unites the two men is their preservation of the road to return safely, meaning that they did not announce clearly and explicitly about their official candidacy, nor about the work program that each of them would adopt in the event of reaching the presidency, and it was satisfied with the broad headlines that are suitable for every candidate and at all times. With a clear preference for Franjieh over General Aoun in terms of dealing with the Syrians on basic issues, foremost of which is the file of the displaced Syrians, which is a point that the head of the Marada Movement and his supporters deliberately exploit and target the American and international position against returning the displaced to their country, and promote that he is able to bring this file to its desired conclusions. Unlike other advertised and unannounced candidates.
It is a game of assurances. Whoever secures the largest amount of it will ensure the arrival of those who support him to Baabda Palace, with an emphasis on the fact that no mourning has been announced for the candidates’ fortunes pending the end of submitting and accepting guarantee requests, a period that is said to be no longer long and may end within two months or less. What did not happen was what was not taken into account in terms of sudden developments, especially since the countdown to the US presidential elections has begun and only a few months separate us from November, which will be full of developments in the region and the world.
