Of all the names that are mentioned, the most often heard is that of current Prime Minister Mario Draghi. The 74-year-old former banker, who according to many saved the euro as chairman of the European Central Bank, has now proven that he can also unite parties at home that normally chase each other.
“I have no specific ambitions in one direction or the other,” Draghi said at a press conference late last year. “I am only a man, a grandfather if you will, in the service of the institutions.” Good listeners understood from this that Draghi is open to a career switch.
President Draghi
The possibility of Draghi in the Quirinal poses a dilemma for the parties: if he becomes president, he must resign as prime minister.
That resignation comes at a vulnerable time: Italy wants to spend more than 200 billion from the European corona recovery fund in the coming years, and is fully engaged in the reforms that must be matched. There are fears that without a leader of Draghi’s stature, the government will fall prematurely and those reforms will be jeopardized.
Giovanni Orsina, political scientist at the Luiss University in Rome, thinks this is an exaggeration. “Draghi is a special person, with remarkable abilities,” he says. “But we’re talking about a plan of hundreds of billions of euros, which is largely implemented by lower governments. It’s not like if Draghi is there, everything goes right, and if Draghi is not there, everything goes wrong.”
According to Orsina, problems in the implementation of the recovery plan are to be expected in any case, whether Draghi is prime minister or not. “There will be new elections in 2023. After the presidential election, anyway, the government will enter the pre-election phase, and it will become more difficult to implement reforms. The part of the corona recovery plan that depends on expensive, deep reforms will even get Draghi then no longer for each other.”
Impossible to predict
Even though he seems to be the biggest contender, it is far from certain that Draghi will actually be elected. Some parties maintain that they would rather see him as prime minister for another year than seven years as president.
Some parties see more benefit in a second term for Sergio Mattarella, although he has made it clear that they do not want it. Others feel more for a woman in the Quinial, such as Senate President Elisabetta Casellati or Justice Secretary Marta Cartabia.
As is often the case in Italian politics, it is impossible to predict who will ultimately win.
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