Presidential election poll: what the second week reveals

Jérôme Fourquet and François Kraus, political scientists from Ifop, analyze for Paris Match the second week of our daily Ifop-Fiducial survey for Paris Match-LCI-Sud-Radio. This Friday, the gap is closing between Marine Le Pen (17.5%, -0.5) and Valérie Pécresse (16.5%, +0.5), while Emmanuel Macron, still in the lead, remains stable (25.5%).

Emmanuel Macron puts an end to the erosion he has been recording since the beginning of January

The potential for voting intentions in favor of the outgoing president is on the rise again this week, putting an end to the erosion it has recorded since the launch of the Rolling (-2.5 points between January 10 and 18). The jump in voting intentions that he had recorded the day after the holidays in a very tense context linked to the management of the Omicron variant has certainly dissipated, but he manages to stop the decline, no doubt because he is less directly the object of criticism on the management of the crisis as can be its Ministers of Health or Education.

Éric Zemmour avoids relegation to the second division for the time being

By registering his first increase on Thursday since his controversial remarks on the education of disabled children (Friday, January 14), Éric Zemmour curbs the downward trend which had resulted in a fall of 2.5 points of intention to vote in barely four days. Admittedly, this fall is to be put into perspective since he finds the low water level which was his when the Rolling was launched (12%) but his electoral potential comes out tarnished by this sequence, in particular with popular voters particularly shocked by his remarks on the children with disabilities.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is now on the heels of Éric Zemmour

The other main lesson of this week is the slow but almost continuous progress of the leader of La France insoumise, who benefits both from the very good echoes around his “immersive” meeting on Sunday January 16, from the withdrawal of Arnaud Montebourg, which he captures most of the former voters, and the cacophony on the left following the announcement of Christiane Taubira’s candidacy – which does not register any effect of breath following this event, her score of 3% placing her at tied with Anne Hidalgo. In one week, it thus managed the performance of progressing by two points (if we exclude the slight dip on Friday), i.e. one of its record levels since the regional elections of June 2021. In a political landscape totally split on the left , it appears to date to be the only organized and dynamic force. It will be recalled that its current low level corresponds to the level at which it was in January 2017, before it rallied a whole section of the left.

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Marine Le Pen is gradually breaking away from Valérie Pécresse

Main beneficiary of the disappointment recorded this week by Éric Zemmour, the leader of the National Rally consolidated her second position in the race for the second round, the gap which separates her with the candidate of the Republicans having reached two points this week (1 point to date of Friday 21), whereas it was only 0.5 points previously. Product of a strategy of “respectability” having made him gradually gain in presidential status, this good performance by Marine Le Pen is undoubtedly very much due to the radicalism of the Zemmourian competition which could have contributed, in some way, to a form of ” merkelization” of his image, today increasingly distant from that of his father. The gap of 5.5 points between Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour is significant and if it is maintained or increases in the coming weeks, it could have the effect of generating a phenomenon of useful voting in the electorate of the national right, a phenomenon that would further strengthen Marine Le Pen and weaken Éric Zemmour. If, in addition, the latter were to be overtaken by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the symbol would be harsh and could lead to a loosening of the candidate.

Valérie Pécresse fails for the time being to trigger a dynamic

Completely stable both for a week and since the launch of the Rolling, the Republican candidate has failed to take advantage of the fall recorded by Éric Zemmour despite a very strong positioning on security issues, as evidenced by his remarks made in Greece. As it stands, the gap with Marine Le Pen remains largely remediable, but insofar as it is the latter who essentially benefits from the decline of the polemicist, the chances of qualification of the president of the Île-de-France region could move away over the fall of Éric Zemmour. In view of the game of communicating vessels between Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, Valérie Pécresse does not seem to have any interest in the latter going below 10%, under penalty of seeing the qualification threshold in the second round be raised.

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