Presidential 2022: political scientist Florent Gougou answers your questions about the first round of the election

Emmanuel Macron (LREM) and Marine Le Pen (RN) came out on top in the first round of the presidential election, this Sunday, April 10, after a ballot which saw the collapse of certain political parties. Florent Gougou, political scientist and teacher-researcher at Sciences Po Grenoble, is our guest this Monday, April 11 from 3:30 p.m. You can ask your questions in this article.

Like four years ago, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen entered the second round of the presidential election this Sunday, April 10. The outgoing president came first with 27.60% of the vote, ahead of the candidate of the National Rally (23.41%).

Jean-Luc Mélenchon was able to bring together left-wing voters. But not enough to reach the second round. The leader of La France insoumise came in third place with 21.95% of the vote. The traditional parties (LR and PS in particular) have fallen below the 5% mark. A historical disappointment.

Political scientist Florent Gougou, teacher-researcher at Sciences Po Grenoble, will be with us this Monday, April 11, from 3:30 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. You can now ask your questions about this first round using our form at the bottom of the article.

4:50 p.m. – On the scale of humanity, the first challenge is climate because the IPCC report says that we only have 3 years left to act. It alerts us to impending dangers. My question is why two thirds of French people voted for candidates who do not make ecology their priority?
-benjibasson83

Florent Gougou: “Not all voters make the ecological emergency their main priority. L’environment is a “very important” aspect in their electoral decision for a quarter of French people (24%, Ipsos poll).

For some voters, other subjects, such as purchasing power or immigration, are considered important. And they proceed by ranking their priorities before making their choice.

In some polls, purchasing power was given as the main priority of the French for this election. This concern preceded certain themes such as the environment, the health system, security or immigration.

4:35 p.m .: In the two Savoies, how to explain the decline of the right?

Florent Gougou: “As at the national level, Emmanuel Macron has succeeded in five years of public policy directed primarily towards right-wing voters to capture the votes of this electorate.”

Information: Five years ago, François Fillon came first in the first round in Haute-Savoie with 25.41% of the vote, ahead of Emmanuel Macron (24.23%). This year, the outgoing president won 30.5% of the votes cast, against only 5.2% for Valérie Pécresse.

In Savoie, Emmanuel Macron also came out on top with 26.26% of the vote, ahead of Marine Le Pen (23%).

4:26 p.m .: The traditional parties are losing ground. What can we expect from the legislative elections?

Florent Gougou: “The PS has less to lose than Les Républicains. The Socialist Party has only 40 MPs left who resisted the 2017 legislative elections. They resisted by means of strong local roots or by the absence of a candidate of La République en Marche. They are not really more threatened than in 2017.

With the collapse of LR on this election, the consequences of the legislative elections can be gigantic. The challenge will be to know how the applications will be structured. During his speech this Sunday, Emmanuel Macron called for a union. Passages from LR to LREM could therefore take place in view of the legislative elections.

At Les Républicains, this could push the party a little further into a financial crisis. Part of its annual funding depends on its results in legislative elections. There had already been a drop in LR deputies in 2017. In 2022, the party’s finances could be even more impacted. It would be a blow to the party’s ability to exist as an institution.”

4:15 p.m .: What do you think of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s decision to “get closer” to Emmanuel Macron for the second round?
– yanval

Florent Gougou: “Jean-Luc Mélenchon did not approach Emmanuel Macron, he chose to adopt a traditional line of the French left. That of blocking, of refusing the vote of the National Rally.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon said it very clearly and even quickly lduring his speech on Sunday evening. He repeated that no voice should be given to Marine Le Pen. IHe did not want to be put on trial, as had been the case in 2017.

He did not, however, explicitly tell his voters to vote for Emmanuel Macron in the second round. He doesn’t have itsaid as clearly as other candidates. He explained that each voter remained free.”

4:05 p.m.: How could Grenoble, an ecological land, be able to vote so much for Jean-Luc Mélenchon and so little for Yannick Jadot? What consequences can this have locally?

Florent Gougou: “When the programs were scrutinized, environmental associations noticed similarities in terms of ecological radicalism in the programs of Yannick Jadot and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

There was not one program less ecological than the other. The differences were not major. The fact that Yannick Jadot recorded a lower score than Jean-Luc Mélenchon therefore does not mean that there is less environmental concern in Grenoble. Among the camp of people concerned about the ecological transition, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was considered more presidential.

For the future, the challenge will be to know how the candidacies for the legislative elections will be structured. After this presidential score, it is likely that LFI has high expectations. The party might not be keen on negotiating deals with other left-wing parties.”

Information: Jean-Luc Mélenchon came out on top in Grenoble, with 38.94% of the vote. Yanick Jadot collected 8.95% of the votes cast in the town.

3:55 p.m .: Why such a high abstention rate? And what is the profile of the abstainers?
– Lily

Florent Gougou: “Participation is declining in moderate proportions. It is part of a general movement that is affecting other European democracies with these same types of votes. The presidential election remains relatively unscathed from the decline in participation observed in the other polls in France.

This can be explained by the decline in the sense of civic duty over time. For the younger generations, voting is first and foremost a right. For older generations, voting is first and foremost a duty. This last part of the population is aging and therefore less and less numerous.

Younger generations tend to vote intermittently. They have a more distant relationship with institutions. Voting is no longer sacred. But that does not mean that there is a political disengagement: young people continue to take to the streets, to demonstrate, to mobilize.

The younger generations constitute part of the abstentionists. Another marker, the most discriminating, is the level of education. Sociologically, the less educated people are, the less likely they are to vote.”

Information: the abstention rate during this first round is 26.3%. In 2017, during the first round of the presidential election, it was 22.2%.