Published on December 16, 2023
As the battle rages over whether or not COP28 was a success and whether talk of a “historic” deal is justified, we may just have to look to the oil companies for the answer. Sultan al Jaber, the president of the summit, head of the national oil company Adnoc, affirmed in an interview with the Guardian published Friday December 15 that he would continue to invest in hydrocarbons despite the agreement reached in Dubai.
Sultan al Jaber, the president of COP28, also head of the national oil company Adnoc, says his company will continue to invest in oil. A statement that is surprising just two days after the end of the summit. The Dubai agreement that he orchestrated actually calls for the first time in the history of climate negotiations to “gradually abandon fossil fuels”.
“The world continues to need low-carbon, low-cost oil and gas,” he told the Guardian in a statement. interview published Friday December 15. He notes that Adnoc’s hydrocarbons are low-carbon because they are extracted efficiently and with fewer leaks than other sources, including unconventional oil. “Ultimately, remember that it is demand that will decide and dictate what type of energy source will meet the growing global energy needs,” he added.
“No impact on oil exports”
This is a sign that the wording used in the Dubai agreement is sufficiently vague to leave room for interpretation. The Saudi Minister of Energy, whose country is accused of having blocked a more ambitious text at COP28, also rushed to minimize the scope of the agreement as soon as it was adopted. Prince Abdel Aziz ben Salamane thus stressed that it would have “no impact” on his country’s exports. According to him, the text “imposes nothing” on producing countries and allows them to reduce their emissions according to their means and interests.
The same day as the Dubai agreement, the Organization of the Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) announced its forecasts of “healthy growth” for global oil demand in 2024. We should consume next year, according to the oil cartel, more than 104 million barrels per day, compared to 102 million in 2023. OPEC was also active during COP28 to reduce the ambition of the agreement by asking its members to refuse any text targeting fossil energies.
In France, TotalÉnergies was also delighted with the conclusion of COP28, its CEO Patrick Pouyanné having traveled to Dubai as part of the French delegation. In a press release, the major “notes with interest the mention in the agreement of the usefulness of energies such as gas”. Ufip, the French Union of Petroleum Industries, also welcomes the agreement. “We are moving towards a world that will no longer use oil,” recognizes its president Olivier Gantois on BFM Business. But for him too, everything depends on the level of demand and therefore not on the level of oil tankers. “We must not dry up the supply at the risk of creating a shortage,” he warns.
“The direction is very clear”
Faced with these reactions, we can quite legitimately wonder about the impact that the Dubai agreement will have. But we must also keep in mind the limits of the COP exercise, which requires finding a consensus among nearly 200 countries and which therefore requires language that is neither too ambitious nor too restrictive to be accepted by all. It is therefore now up to States to translate the commitments made at COP28 into their public policies and put in place measures to encourage this exit from fossil fuels by promoting the deployment of soft mobility and allowing access to cars for the poorest. electrical.
The same goes for businesses and investors who otherwise risk suffering heavy losses. In a rapport published on November 23, the International Energy Agency estimates that the current valuation of private oil and gas companies could fall by 25% if all national energy and climate targets were met, and by up to 60% % if the world strived to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
“For me, what is clear is that 200 countries have signed a document to say goodbye to fossil fuels. The direction is very clear,” said Fatih Birol, the president of the IEA in an interview with AFP, the outcome of COP28. “I think that he [l’accord de Dubaï, ndr] gives an unequivocal signal to investors: if you continue to invest in fossil fuels, you are taking serious business risks. It is also a signal to investors that clean energy is more profitable than many imagine,” he added.
2023-12-16 06:15:44
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