It will be the second time in six months that Russian President Alexander Lukashenko has visited the Russian seaside town of Sochi to meet Vladimir Putin. The two statesmen will, Monday, February 22, discuss “Key issues related to the development of the strategic partnership and the union between Russia and Belarus”, according to a statement from the Kremlin. The ceremonial decor and handshakes will undoubtedly be the same. The context has radically changed.
→ ANALYSIS. Belarus: in September 2020, crucial visit of Alexander Lukashenko to Russia
On September 14, it was a Lukashenko almost at bay who came to ask for the support of the Russian big brother. Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators have been calling for his departure for more than a month, in the wake of a presidential election marred by fraud. The brutal repression of Belarusian power did not then weaken the determination of the opposition, and if Moscow continues to support Alexander Lukashenko, the message of this first meeting since the election is clear: the Belarusian president must initiate constitutional reform. “Logical and timely”, according to Vladimir Poutine, to lay the foundations for a future transition of power. A loan of 1.5 billion dollars is also granted by Moscow to pass the bitter pill.
“We have lost the street”
The logic of the reform is then “To get rid of a Lukashenko who tires Moscow, and to guide the transition in a manner favorable to Russia”, says Katsiaryna Shmatsinan, an analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies.
Six months later, the opposition leader in exile, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, admitted it: “We have lost the street”, she told the Swiss newspaper this week Time. The demonstrations have largely ceased, while the repression continues to be in full swing in the courts: two journalists from an opposition television station were sentenced, on February 18, to two years in prison for having covered a demonstration in direct.
Under these conditions, Alexander Lukashenko is now “In a much better position”, assures political scientist Valeri Karbalevich from Minsk. Displaying alongside the Russian president offers beautiful images to the state media, and helps reassure the elite, in a country still very dependent on Moscow.
Support “by inertia”
“But with the demonstrations to a minimum, Lukashenko no longer needs Russian support as much, which leaves him greater room for maneuver” he adds. And the freedom to procrastinate on constitutional reform, by simply announcing in February, during a “Pan-Belarusian People’s Assembly”, a possible – and very vague – referendum on the subject next year. “Moscow wanted this reform to be done quickly, but Lukashenko wants to drag it out for several years” concludes Valeri Karbalevich.
The math may well have changed also on the side of Moscow, which had to deal with its own anti-power protests earlier this year. “Russia now has internal problems too, not to mention the deterioration of relations with the West, and it might now be easier for the Kremlin to support by inertia a Lukashenko regime which remains predictable”, estime Katsiaryna Shmatsinan.
Especially since Russia retains the powerful lever of influence of financial aid to a State in economic difficulty: according to the Russian economic daily Kommersant, Vladimir Poutine could thus grant, on February 22, to Belarus a new credit amounting to three billion dollars.
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