All scenarios must be prepared thoughtfully, rationally and without a sense of doom, President Edgars Rinkēvičs emphasizes on the Facebook social media, commenting on the rumors about a possible Russian attack on a NATO member state in the next three to ten years.
The President emphasizes that NATO training scenarios, opinions and analyzes on this topic appear in the press. He admitted that the situation in Europe and the world is difficult and it is difficult to predict the development of events even on an annual basis. In Rinkevich’s opinion, the course of hostilities in Ukraine currently determines a lot, which gives everyone the opportunity and time to prepare.
The President states that this is precisely why it is critically important to provide support to Ukrainians and encourage others to do so as well. Rinkevičs mentions that last week in Riga with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, the parties agreed on very specific political and practical steps to support Ukraine this year.
The President explains that Latvia is a member of NATO and the European Union (EU), there are no other better security guarantees for Latvia and other countries in the region. Rinkēvičs emphasizes that the responsibility for the country lies primarily with us. This means that, without questioning the readiness of Latvia’s allies to defend us, we must be able to do so ourselves first, in order to expect additional support at the possible “X” hour. He notes that the better prepared we are, the less likely Russia will attack.
The President also outlines the work to be done – strengthening the country’s eastern border against hybrid attacks, completing the construction of the fence and securing it with video surveillance and sensors. The military infrastructure of the eastern border must also be established. The Ministry of Defense and the National Armed Forces are preparing specific measures in this area, the president adds.
Among the tasks to be done, Rinkēvičs also mentions the further strengthening of the national defense service, applying not only the voluntary principle, but also the lottery. In his opinion, this will be a test not only for the defense department, but for society as a whole. The President explains that it is intended as an additional measure for the development of the reserves and the National Guard, for the completion of the professional service.
As another work to be done, Rinkēvičs sees the construction of military infrastructure, which also includes the Selia training ground, to ensure the reception of allies and his own needs. The President emphasizes that Latvia’s military industry must be developed. He points out that, although several important supply contracts for strengthening air defense capabilities have been concluded, there are still things that must be able to be produced by ourselves, there are technologies that must be developed by ourselves.
Also, Rinkēvičs points out that the transformation of the civil defense and crisis management system should be carried out in accordance with Ukraine’s experience, and crimes against national security should be dealt with much more harshly. The President concluded that some changes are taking place, but the judiciary must understand that there are no more “times of peace”.
The President states that the election system should be strengthened. Rinkēvičs points out that a long time ago lies and misinformation in social media were a big problem, now a new challenge is the application of artificial intelligence in the election campaign and not only, therefore both legal and practical solutions are needed at the national and international level.
Rinkēvičs expressed his support for the eventual termination of economic relations with the aggressor countries. He emphasizes that it cannot be done immediately, but the country has enough tools and funds to do it nationally and to create a common understanding in the region and Europe. The President emphasizes that the work in the Saeima and the government, considering various proposals, is ongoing. He hopes that this will soon result in concrete decisions.
Rinkevičs points out that the disconnection of the Baltics from the power grids of Russia and Belarus and the connection to the European energy system at the beginning of next year is no less important step. He points out that a significant increase in funding for the internal affairs sector in the coming years should be self-evident.
The President emphasizes that in the diplomatic field, there is constant work with the allies to strengthen the Eastern flank, provide support to Ukraine and “get rid of illusions” about Russia. Rinkēvičs notes that the mobilization of the European defense industry is taking place, but very slowly.
“This is also one critical issue that needs to be constantly “stirred up”. Although periodic news about NATO’s defense planning, exercises and estimates of a possible conflict cause anxiety, it also shows that the Russian threat is taken seriously and many allies are preparing for it. We also we must constantly repel various types of hybrid attacks – the most well-known are propaganda and migration pressure on the eastern border. It must be understood that their nature will also change and vary, this requires constant improvement of the capabilities of our responsible services,” explains the president.
He concludes that the times we live in are complex. The task of our generation is to protect Latvia’s independence. The state president says that he is trying to intimidate us, to cause disbelief and fear in our own forces and to destroy trust in Latvia’s friends. In the President’s view, this is also part of a hybrid war.
“Let’s not allow this, just as we will not allow a frivolous attitude to national security, let’s strengthen it in our daily work. Russia and Belarus will not change in the foreseeable future, living with this threat, strengthening our resilience and enduring this time will not be easy, but it can be done, and we will do it, ” the confident President.
LETA already wrote that Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stated in an interview with the British newspaper “Times” that Russia could restore its military capabilities and pose a threat to NATO’s Eastern flank within three to five years.
“Our intelligence services estimate that it will be three to five years, and it very much depends on our unity and position on the issue of Ukraine,” the head of the Estonian government said about the restoration of the capabilities of the Russian army.
“Russia wants a pause, and this pause is necessary to gather resources and forces. Weakness provokes aggressors, therefore weakness provokes Russia,” she added.
Kallas admitted that it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain the unity of NATO when several Western countries are war-weary and there is a possibility that Donald Trump will return to the post of US president, which could reduce NATO’s ability to restrain, as read in the “Times” newspaper.
Kallas added that, in the long term, NATO should adopt a Cold War-style deterrence strategy towards Russia, with Western countries’ minimum defense spending of 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) per year.
A report by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, which Kallas referred to, says that Moscow considers Estonia to be one of the most vulnerable parts of the NATO alliance and therefore the most likely target for possible attack.
Russia could be planning future attacks even despite the huge loss of life in Ukraine, as irredentism and the fact that the country has never had to take responsibility for crimes before are encouraging Russia to further aggression, the report warned.
In the “Times” interview, Kallas also talked about GPS signal disturbances in the southern Baltic Sea, which she blamed Russia for causing, the shortcomings of NATO’s LINK data exchange system and various theories about Russia’s ability to rebuild its forces after the war in Ukraine.
While Kallas suggested that it could take up to five years to rebuild Russia’s military, other experts estimate that it could take up to nine years.
2024-01-18 04:24:27
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