Updated June 27, 2020, 7:56 p.m.
The German EU Council Presidency falls on a historic date. Can you achieve common goals in the midst of the biggest recession in EU history? There are many predetermined breaking points.
The preparations have already shown that the German presidency of the EU Council Presidency will take place under a mild auspices. On Monday evening, the leaders of the coalition parties met in the chancellery for the final chord to talk again about the presidency from July to December. Two hours later the calm, largely undisputed evening was already over.
A message that was subsequently sent was at most meaningless, which again said something because the coalition partners, who otherwise shone through friction, could obviously avoid major friction. Germany will do everything it can to tackle the “fateful challenge” of the corona pandemic as part of its presidency, it said. They want to work for a “stronger”, “more innovative”, “fairer” and “more sustainable” Europe. This is what unanimity sounds like.
“Together Europe make strong again “, is the motto of the Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) represent the German Council Presidency. The bar is high. The Eurozone is facing the greatest recession of the Second World War, relations with the USA have frozen and the tear-off edges within the international community have been free since the British left.
That Germany To act as an “honest broker” in this historical situation and to defer national interests is not without a certain irony.
Biggest point of controversy: the reconstruction fund
Because of all things the biggest issue on the EU floor, the 750 billion euro Corona reconstruction program, is suspected in some countries: It is a result of the Franco-German locomotive, which is only waiting for the execution of all EU countries that of course they have to open their coffers. The concept is to support the worst affected countries, particularly Spain and Italy, through a debt-financed economic and investment plan that is to be paid from the EU budget by 2058. Together with the EU budget, the program foresees a volume of 1.1 trillion euros from 2021 to 2027.
Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden, the self-proclaimed “frugal four”, fear a “debt union through the back door” – at least formally. In fact, one suspects at EU level, where one scoffs at the countries as the “miserly four”, the blockade stems from a certain frustration at the leadership claim of Germany and France. The fact that the countries mentioned have simultaneously submitted a bilateral, in many cases sloppy, draft is seen as an invitation to negotiations, which may end up in a compromise, but which could be tough. In any case, the 27 heads of state and government were not yet able to agree on the first attempt, via video link on June 19. In mid-July, then again at a “classic” EU summit, to which the participants actually travel to Brussels, the breakthrough should now succeed.
The time at Brexit is short
Another construction site is the UK’s exit from the European Union. If no agreement with by October 31st Great Britain is closed, an uncontrolled exit threatens at the end of the year – and a crash with unforeseeable consequences for the economy. Great Britain is currently still part of the EU internal market and the customs union. In order to clarify the further relationship within this transition period, an agreement must be reached in autumn at the latest so that an agreement can be ratified within a year. Four rounds of negotiations since the UK left the EU at the end of January have so far failed. The fact that the corona pandemic is weighing on the economy and not in need of a second shock could help the breakthrough.
And then there is the issue of climate policy. Germany should have actually put the ecological restructuring of the European economy at the center of the presidency. But that was once. Because of Corona, the plans had to be changed, but the topic did not slip off the agenda. Ideally, you want the two topics Corona and climate.
Von der Leyens “Green New Deal” is no longer a priority
It is clear, however, that the “Green New Deal”, which the new Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen declared as her political legacy two weeks after taking office, is now more likely to result in a “Green New Minimal Compromise”. The blockade is too great in countries such as Poland, where climate policy is sacrificed on the altar of the Corona fight, or at least it is postponed to Saint Everyday. But saving the world climate can only be postponed to a limited extent. Ambitious climate goals are therefore another focus of the EU Council Presidency. In Berlin it is said that the Green New Deal should serve as a guideline for the distribution of aid. As with the German stimulus package, the aim is to ensure that the economy emerges from the crisis in a more climate-friendly and sustainable manner. In this narrative, Corona is only supposed to be the catalyst for an environmentally friendly restart of the economy. “I think it would be a huge step forward if the EU saved 50 to 55 percent instead of 40 percent, and if we reaffirmed the goal that we want to be greenhouse gas neutral by 2050,” said Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD).
In addition to the three main topics of Corona, Klima and Brexit, there are other, albeit smaller blocks. The USA have announced that around 9,500 soldiers will be withdrawn from Europe, thereby shifting the European security architecture. The fact that a previously unknown number of soldiers are to be moved to Poland will be noted with some surprise in Berlin. Fair taxation of digital companies such as Apple, Amazon or Facebook will also be discussed. And then there was the asylum issue: Federal Interior Minister Horst Seehofer had announced that he wanted to make the reform of the Common European Asylum System a focus of the six-month presidency.
It is Angela Merkel’s second EU Presidency after 2007. Seldom has a council period been as important as in the deepest economic crisis since the European Union was founded. The fall height is correspondingly large. Or to put it another way: If the Germans do nothing now, who will?
A few days before the election in Poland, President Duda is received at the White House. US President Trump once again makes it clear that he will punish Berlin and reduce the number of US soldiers in Germany. And Trump says where part of the troops should go.
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