IslamabadAfter more than a year of political tensions that followed the overthrow of the government of the Pakistan Insaf Party, led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, Pakistan is preparing to hold general elections, as the office of Pakistani President Arif Alvi announced the dissolution of parliament and the government in preparation for elections.
This step was a major demand of the Insaf Party and its leader Imran Khan for more than a year, as Khan demanded the dissolution of the national parliament and the government and the holding of early elections after his government was overthrown in April of last year, and he organized a number of demonstrations in different regions of the country to put pressure on the government and the authorities. Sovereign to hold early elections.
The matter did not stop at demonstrations only, as last January the leadership of the Insaf Party took a decision to dissolve the regional parliaments in two of the largest provinces of Pakistan, namely Punjab (east) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (northwest), two territories whose governments were controlled by the Insaf Party.
The move to dissolve the national parliament and the federal government comes in light of the arrest of Imran Khan, his imprisonment for 3 years, and the deprivation of practicing politics or holding any government position for a period of 5 years, which casts doubt on the ability of the Insaf Party to compete in the upcoming elections.
Dissolving Parliament has been a major demand of the Insaf Party and its leader Imran Khan for more than a year (Reuters)
constitutional steps
According to the Pakistani constitution, a caretaker government must be formed to work for a period of 3 months and organize and monitor elections to ensure free and fair elections, as the country’s president, prime minister and opposition leader consult in parliament to agree on a new prime minister.
The interim government is expected to be announced on Saturday, according to former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s remarks broadcast by the state-run Radio Pakistan.
In the event that no agreement is reached on a new prime minister, the prime minister and the head of the opposition must nominate names for a committee formed by the Speaker of Parliament within 3 days. In the event that there is no consensus, the responsibility for announcing a new prime minister rests with the Pakistan Election Commission within two days.
And the provincial governments will be forced to dissolve parliaments and regional governments after the dissolution of the national parliament, and since the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are already subject to two interim governments, then only the provinces of Sindh (south) and Balochistan (southwest) must dissolve their governments and parliaments and appoint two provisional governments.
According to the electoral system in Pakistan, the Pakistani Elections Commission must set a date for holding elections within a period not exceeding 60 days, because Parliament was dissolved after the end of its legal term, but in the event of an early dissolution of Parliament, the period becomes 90 days to announce new elections.
Political analyst Javed Siddiqui said in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that the military institution plays a major role at this stage, and they are trying to appoint people close to them in this interim government.
New alliances and political map
The Pakistani arena is witnessing strong competition between several political parties that have been shaping the political scene in the country over the decades of its history full of political conflicts and military coups that it has witnessed 3 times since its founding.
The largest Pakistani parties are competing in the upcoming elections, led by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif’s wing) led by Shahbaz Sharif, the Pakistan People’s Party led by the scion of the Bhutto Bilawal Bhutto Zardari family, and the Insaf Party led by Imran Khan.
In addition to other parties that are less popular and do not have the ability to obtain a parliamentary majority that would enable them to form a government. Rather, these parties play an indispensable role in allying with major parties that often need to ally with smaller parties to obtain a parliamentary majority.
The most prominent of these parties is the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party, which is led by Maulana Fazlur Rahman, which has a strong presence in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, and the United National Movement Party, which has a strong presence in the city of Karachi and some cities of Sindh, and the Pakistan Awami Party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in addition to the Pakistan Muslim League Party ( Wing Commander-in-Chief) which is led by Shujaat Hussain and has a presence in some areas of Punjab, and the Baluchistan-Awami and Baluchistan National parties in Balochistan.
In the past months, the Pakistan Insaf Party, formed by Jehangir Khan Tarin and led by Alim Khan, has also appeared on the scene in the past months, in addition to the Insaf Parliamentary Party formed by former Defense Minister Pervez Khattak in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
In this context, the political analyst and director of the Islamabad Center for Political Studies, Abdul Karim Shah, says that after the events of May 9, thousands of supporters of the Insaf Party were arrested, and a large number of party leaders defected in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and this constitutes a new political map in country.
And Abdul Karim Shah added in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, “However, despite this, Imran Khan is still popular, and this is evident from the by-elections for municipal councils that were held a week ago in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which was won by the Insaf Party.”
And Shah continues that it is currently difficult to predict the chances of political parties winning the upcoming elections, despite the support of the military establishment for the new parties that were formed in the past months.
Shah does not rule out that the chances of an alliance between Nawaz Sharif’s party and Jehangir Khan Tarin’s party will be strong, although Nawaz Sharif’s party fears that the space will be left to people who were previously in the Insaf Party, and it is worth noting that there are attempts between them to agree on a mechanism for cooperation in southern Punjab.
For his part, political analyst Javed Siddiqui says that preference may be given at the present time to the rival parties of the PJSP, which are the League Party, the People’s Party, and the Jamiat Ulama al-Islam party.
Siddiqui explains that the presence of Imran Khan in prison and the efforts made to keep him in prison and the successive cases filed against him play a role in distancing his party from strong competition.
Siddiqui believes that if Imran Khan does not lead his party’s election campaign, the chances of the Insaf Party winning the elections will be very slim. On the other hand, there are attempts to bring Nawaz Sharif back to the fore and his return to Pakistan to lead his party’s election campaign.
My friend concludes by saying that the results of the upcoming elections seem close to the scenario of the parties relying on each other, meaning that none of the parties will obtain an absolute majority to form a government, which is what makes them ally with each other to form a majority to form the government.
Troubled situation and predictions of postponement
In light of the talk about the new elections, there are predictions that they will be postponed, according to statements by Defense Minister Khwaja Asif and Interior Minister Rana Sanalla, according to the Pakistani newspaper Dawn.
In this context, Abdul Karim Shah says that postponing the elections is very likely, and it could be postponed for a period of 6 months or more, due to the turbulent political and economic situation in the country, or the deliberate intention of the actors in the country.
For his part, Javed Siddiqui says that postponing the elections can range from 6 months to a year, because recent statistics from the Election Commission and other bodies say that at least 6 months are required to complete the pre-election procedures.
Siddiqui adds that the interim prime minister is expected to have experience in the economy to manage the country’s economic affairs during that period.
My friend concludes by saying that with the elections approaching and in light of the current situation, people have doubts about the fairness and transparency of these elections.
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2023-08-11 23:42:17
