Predictions of Russia’s Attack on Ukraine, from Cyber ​​to Great Invasion All

MOSCOW, KOMPAS.comRussia seems to be launching some form of attack on the Ukraine, but the scale is still unknown, as the Kremlin has many options available, analysts say.

Moscow has in recent weeks amassed about 100,000 troops near the border with Ukraine, sparking fears that the most serious East-West conflict since the Cold War is about to break out.

The analysts quoted AFP said the deployment of Russian troops gave Moscow a range of options, and President Vladimir Putin would consider factors ranging from Western retaliation to the weather.

Also read: Does Russia Really Want to Invade Ukraine? This is a possibility…

“From a military point of view, Russia is preparing for a wide range of possibilities, from psychological agitation – via cyberspace and information means – to a full-scale invasion,” said Mathieu Boulegue, researcher at Chatham House, think tank based in London.

“For Moscow, the question is no longer ‘if’, but ‘when’ and ‘how’ to intervene in Ukraine,” he said, arguing that “Russia is just waiting for an excuse”.

Russian attack options on Ukraine

photo" data-photolink="http://www.kompas.com/global/image/2022/01/22/203400170/prediksi-serangan-rusia-ke-ukraina-dari-siber-hingga-invasi-besar?page=2" style=" max-width: 100% ; width:780px ">RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY via BBC Russian troops during an exercise. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said they would withdraw some troops from the border with Ukraine.

Boulegue said there was time pressure for the Kremlin as it would prove difficult to keep so many Russian troops for long in the winter months, as many of them are deployed from the far east of the country.

Apart from a mass ground deployment, an invasion would be at a high cost to Russia. That is why Putin can opt for air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian command and control centers to destroy their ability to retaliate without having to mobilize Russian troops, he explained.

In what many see as the opening blow to the conflict, Ukraine last week suffered a massive cyberattack that the West blamed on Russia.

Meanwhile, Moscow is planning major military exercises with the regime in Ukraine’s pro-Kremlin neighbor Belarus in February.

Also read: Biden Believes Russia Will Attack Ukraine, Here’s His Prediction…

Russia likes to play with forces that can calibrate crises from total de-escalation to total war, so they have all the options,” said William Alberque of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

He said these options ranged from cyber and information warfare to large-scale invasions.

“They (Russia) want something from Ukraine,” he added.

Alberque continued, the change of season from winter to spring provides another factor.

Russia has a chance from now on until daily temperatures rise in Ukraine. The last thing they want is to operate the tanks in the spring, because they will really stagnate,” he said.

“Messy and unexpected”

photo" data-photolink="http://www.kompas.com/global/image/2022/01/22/203400170/prediksi-serangan-rusia-ke-ukraina-dari-siber-hingga-invasi-besar?page=3" style=" max-width: 100% ; width:780px ">A satellite image taken on November 1, 2021 shows a large Russian ground force stationed in Yelnya City, Smolensk Oblast Region.  Western countries such as the US and NATO have said they are concerned about Russia's activities that place troops on the border with Ukraine.Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Tech via Daily Mirror A satellite image taken on November 1, 2021 shows a large Russian ground force stationed in Yelnya City, Smolensk Oblast Region. Western countries such as the US and NATO have said they are concerned about Russia’s activities that place troops on the border with Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Pavel Baev research professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo estimates the air strikes are most likely to be carried out by Russia given Ukraine’s inability to respond in a significant way.

He said the large number of Russian troops deployed at the border was not enough for a full-scale invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

“When in 1968 the Soviet Union entered Czechoslovakia – which is a small country – they had at least twice as many troops as Russia on the Ukrainian border,” he said.

Keir Giles, director of research at the Conflict Studies Research Center, said Russia had many options other than a ground invasion to achieve its goals.

Russia could launch a ground invasion if it wanted to, but that would be expensive, messy and above all unpredictable,” he said.

While the increase in Russian troops is sufficient for a limited ground attack on Ukraine, the same effect for Russia can be achieved with missile, air, or cyber attacks targeting critical Ukrainian military or civilian systems, he said.

Such attacks “can be started and ended at will, and are punctuated by pauses to repeat or escalate demands to pressure Kiev into concessions and its Western partners to grant Russia’s wishes”, he said.

Also read: Why are Russia and Ukraine at war, including over Crimea?

Get updates news of choice and breaking news every day from Kompas.com. Let’s join the Telegram group “Kompas.com News Update”, how to click the link https://t.me/kompascomupdate, then join. You must first install the Telegram application on your cellphone.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.