Remember how, last year, the Oscars were actually kind of fun? How the Academy went all old-school and focused, oddly enough, on the art and craft of making movies? And how the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” cast and crew made such charming speeches, and nobody got slapped?
Well, we won’t have “Everything Everywhere” again this year when the Oscars return this Sunday, March 10 (though expect acting winners Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan and Jamie Lee Curtis to return as presenters), but otherwise, signs are hopeful for another good night. Jimmy Kimmel is returning as host, and the Academy has announced that it’s bringing back a sentimental format for the acting awards, last seen in 2009, with each of the 20 nominees introduced by a past winner of that category. And Zendaya’s confirmed to show up, so the fashion should be glorious.
So I remain hopeful for some good TV viewing this year. And who will be the winners? Let’s take a stroll through the major categories.
Best picture
After the summer of “Barbenheimer,” it seemed likely that best picture would be a duel between giants — but things seem a bit one-sided at the moment. “Oppenheimer” has swept the Producers Guild Awards, the Directors Guild Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (where it won the coveted “outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture”); considering that there’s much overlap between the guild memberships and the Academy, a win for Christopher Nolan’s haunting biopic seems a safe bet. “Barbie,” which wasn’t nominated for best director, will have to settle for its $1.4 billion worldwide haul. Maybe “Poor Things,” considering that the Academy proved with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” that it has a taste for wildly weird movies, has a shot? But probably not.
Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
My vote: “Past Lives”
Wish you were here: “All of Us Strangers”
Best director
Likewise, this looks like Nolan’s year to finally win his first Academy Award, and high time; he’s been nominated multiple times since 2002’s “Memento.” Might the Academy reward more daring filmmaking and hand it to Yorgos Lanthimos for “Poor Things,” or put a capper on the remarkable career of Martin Scorsese by giving it to him for “Killers of the Flower Moon”? I doubt it, but they’re the only other two with a shot; for Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”) and Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”), the honor’s in the nomination.
Prediction: Nolan
My vote: Lanthimos
Wish you were here: Celine Song, “Past Lives”
Best actress
For a while, this very strong category looked like a perfectly even race between Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon,” not to mention a graduate of Mountlake Terrace High School) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”), with the fact that Gladstone’s role is smaller balanced out by Stone’s previous win. But with Gladstone taking the SAG, it now looks likely that the delightful narrative of the past year — previously little-known actor becomes a star, with multiple gracious speeches along the way — will have a fairy-tale ending. Don’t write Stone off, though; her very physical performance in “Poor Things” is remarkable, and Hollywood clearly loves her. Also remarkable are Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), Annette Bening (“Nyad”) and Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”), but it’s not their year.
Prediction: Gladstone
My vote: Oh, don’t make me choose; let’s give it to Gladstone AND Stone
Wish you were here: Greta Lee, “Past Lives”
Best actor
Sometimes, an Oscar can be a glorious welcome-to-the-party (see Gladstone, above); sometimes, it’s an overdue recognition of a long and illustrious career. That’s the case for two performers in this category, Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) and Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”), who have decades of remarkable work behind them but have never stood at the Academy podium. I’m thinking it’s Giamatti’s time — really, he should have won in 2005 for “Sideways,” but wasn’t even nominated — but Wright could surprise. (Fun Seattle connection: Giamatti, as a young actor, was part of the Annex Theatre ensemble here in the late ’80s/early ’90s.) But this one’s hard to call: Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) won the SAG Award and has momentum. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”) and Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) can relax; they won’t be giving a speech this year.
Prediction: Giamatti
My vote: Giamatti or Wright