The same thing
The first trading day of the year passed on a positive note, creating an upbeat mood for the whole week. But you shouldn’t delude yourself: short-term factors largely influenced, while medium-term risks have not disappeared anywhere. Optimism can persist for some time, but it cannot yet be called stable. Moreover, the external background is already deteriorating.
The turnover of yesterday’s session was only 12.7 billion rubles. according to the Moscow Stock Exchange index and 14.3 billion rubles. throughout the vast market. This is about 2.5 times lower than the average values. For January weekends, this is a fairly typical situation, as many market participants prefer to relax on these days.
MOEX index it broke out of the trading range of the last few weeks and marked the break of the short-term downtrend. The signal was generated at low speed, so it should be treated with some skepticism. If confirmed, the medium-term target will be the 2250 p. level, although the instrument may face limited resistance from sellers in the region of 2200–2210 p.
American indices we missed out on the first half of the day’s acquisitions last night, so the external environment may not be as supportive today. Against the backdrop of a drop in oil prices, the energy sector suffered significant losses. Tech giants Apple and Tesla also looked weak, their fall having a tangible impact on index momentum and broader market sentiment.
Oil prices in yesterday’s session it lost 4.4% amid risks from China. The increase in the export quotas of petroleum products was perceived by the market as a sign of weakness in domestic demand. In parallel, the dollar index jumped by 1.2%, putting further pressure on commodities. Oil and gas stocks may be under pressure today.
Meanwhile, in February-March, the decline in production in Russia could coincide with the easing of anti-COVID restrictions in China. This could strengthen the balance in the oil market and put upward pressure on prices. Therefore, the medium-term outlook for oil remains moderately positive.
Russian ruble weakened in response to lower oil prices, reflecting fears of a narrowing trade surplus in 2023. Meanwhile, current forecasts still give no reason to expect a renewed rally in the dollar, euro and yuan. All three currencies, paired with the ruble, show a flat trend, the boundaries of which may remain relevant over the next few weeks. At the same time, volatility may gradually decrease, contributing to corridor narrowing. For USDRUB, possible fair levels could be between 68 and 70 rubles.
documents in focus
Mechel-up (+5.8%). Stocks rose for the fourth consecutive day amid strong momentum in China’s coking coal prices. Contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up 35% in 2 months. The dollar against the ruble grew by 16% over the same period. This encourages optimism about corporate profits and perf dividends.
However, there is no certainty about dividends. In 2022, RAS’s equity capital was not sufficient and the company refused even partial payments. In the absence of reporting, it is currently impossible to reliably estimate the potential volume of dividends in 2023 and the prospects for receiving them.
In the short term, after four days of growth and recovery of quarterly peaks, a correction is brewing. Although in a tight market, the upside momentum could drag a little longer.
Sberbank-ao (+0.45%). Bank shares are now the simplest and most understandable idea on the Russian market, which can gradually join more and more participants. Their part in The wallet of the people The Moscow stock exchange rose by 3 pp in October-November. to 22.1% and could increase even more in December. The bank closed 2022 with a profit and shows excellent results on a monthly basis, so dividends are possible as early as the summer of 2023.
A classic breakout formation has formed on the daily chart. Overcoming the resistance zone 144-145 rubles. can be impulsive. The only thing missing is a catalyst. It could be the bank’s report for December, which could be released next week.
Branches of Russian Grids today is the last dividend trading day for 9 months. The 2022 dividend yield fluctuates widely, reaching up to 12% on individual chips. Approaching the limit may contribute to more speculative activity in newspapers.
Externallyth background
Asian markets are trading in positive territory today. Futures for the S&P 500 index are close to previous levels, Brent oil is up 0.05% and is hovering around $82.2.
Quotes
Stock indices
ind. Moscow Stock Exchange (IMOEX2) 2171.4 (+0.8%)
RTS 963.1 (-0.77%)
S&P 500 3824.14 (-0.4%)
Currency
USD/RUB 71.14 (+1.77%)
EUR/RUB 74.8 (+0.67%)
CNY/RUB 10.11 (+2%)
Find out more
• 5 most suitable stocks for active traders in 2023
• How to make the year better than the last. We draw up a financial plan
• Where to invest oil dividends
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