Not only did Samuel Charap, a former adviser in Barack Obama’s government, predict that Russia would invade Ukraine. Charap went out on the eve of 2021 and said it was likely that the invasion would take place in late February 2022.
As one of the very few analysts, he was right when Vladimir Putin’s brutal war machine launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February last year.
In an interview with Danish TV 2 now tells Charap how he thinks the bloody war will end.
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Expert: – Unlikely
Charap, now a senior researcher at the American think tank Rand, believes that the war in Ukraine will not end with a complete victory for one of the parties.
– Victory in wars can be achieved by demilitarizing one side or removing, wiping out or replacing a government. That is completely out of the question, says Charap.
Brutal message in a closed meeting
He also does not believe the war will end with a peace agreement, and considers the chances to be increasingly poor.
– A peace agreement and a political settlement is unlikely due to the strong hostility that has developed during the war, says Charap.
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Pointing to Korea
The most likely thing is therefore a ceasefire, but where the parties do not agree on where the international borders should go, according to the senior researcher.
It may be reminiscent of the situation on the Korean peninsula.
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Formally, the Korean War has never ended, but North and South Korea have lived side by side for almost 70 years without war. However, there are several differences.
The front line running through Ukraine is almost ten times as long as the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea.
– We are talking about an incredibly long contact and front line, but I think we can find innovative ways to monitor a ceasefire. It is more likely than there will be a Russian flag flying in Kyiv or a Ukrainian flag in Moscow, says Charap.
Recently, Ukrainian forces recaptured the village of Andriivka in eastern Ukraine. Drone footage shows Russian soldiers surrendering – before being subjected to artillery fire by their own. Reporter: Edward Stenlund. Video: Ukraine’s 3rd Mechanized Brigade. view more
Current situation
In reality, the senior researcher describes a scenario that may resemble the prevailing situation in Ukraine before Russia’s full-scale invasion last year.
Ever since 2014, Russian forces have occupied parts of the counties of Luhansk and Donetsk, which together make up Donbas, in the far east of Ukraine.
Attacked by their own: – Thrown incendiary bombs
Formalizing such a solution, which now includes even larger areas of Ukraine, seems currently out of the question for the Ukrainian authorities.
This was also clearly expressed by Ukraine when NATO’s Norwegian Chief of Staff, Stian Jenssen, stated that a possible solution to the war could be for Ukraine to cede land in return for membership in NATO.
Jenssen subsequently went out and nuanced the statement, saying that it came out wrong.
2023-09-28 18:31:36
#Predicted #invasion #war #ends
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