Ukrainian military and political officials have been warning for months that the Russians are preparing a new attack in late spring or summer. Considering the current logic of the enemy’s actions at the front, a new blow should be expected in the Donbass. However, in several publications – both Russian and Western media – we see predictions that completely different regions could be the possible targets of the residents.
When will there be a new Russian offensive?
Now the enemy is continuing the offensive actions he started last fall. And, despite the fatigue of his soldiers, he still tries not to slow down. The residents want to move forward as far as possible before Ukrainian units receive additional weapons promised by the United States and have time to seize new borders.
Next, there are several options for event development. The first – after the arrival of part of the American aid the enemy will stop and rest. And when new Russian units and formations come into action, they will begin a new phase of offensive activity. The publication’s sources in the Defense Forces believe that the creation of new units of the occupation army will be completed around August. That is why, according to this version, a new Russian offensive may not happen in May or June, but later – in August or September.
The second situation – the enemy will not give any break and increase the pressure, when additional new units arrive at the front line. In this case, the maximum level of offensive actions on the part of the enemy can also occur in the second part of the summer or early autumn.
There is a third option – the enemy can hit in one of the inactive directions starting at the end of May or throughout the summer. And at the same time, he will continue to work offensively in those areas where he has succeeded so far.
Where Russia might go next
Now Russia is conducting active offensive operations in three operational directions: Konstantinovsky – in the Chasovoy Yar area, in Pokrovsky – in a section of a dozen settlements near Avdeevka, and also in Kurakhovsky from the side of Marinka. The most difficult situation is in the last two. Before that, there is already RBC-Ukraine toldhow they are related to each other and what the Kremlin’s overall plan might be.
The interlocutors of the publication in the Defense Forces claim that the main goal of the enemy in the future is to capture the Donetsk region. However, the way in which the Russians work to achieve this goal may be different.
According to the first and second situation described above, the enemy will attack in the same directions in which he is working today. In particular, the most active battles will be either towards the Kramatorsk concentration, or in the direction of Kurakhovsko-Ugledarsky.
According to the third scenario, the attacker can also be more active in the Sumy region and in the direction of Kharkov from the region of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. Moscow’s aim, on the one hand, is to create a so-called “sanitary zone” near its border areas. On the other hand, the enemy wants to force the Ukrainian command to withdraw some troops from other important areas for him in defense of the Kharkov and Sumy region.
Recently, this version has been heavily “fed” in the Russian media – both opposition and propaganda. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was the first official to openly say that Kharkov “plays an important role” in Putin’s idea of creating a demilitarized “sanitary zone” in Ukraine.
The “Northern” group, located in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions, has up to 50 thousand workers, according to the coordinator of the “Information Resistance” Konstantin Mashovets. Another group – “West”, works in the direction of Kupyansk, according to various estimates, it is 60-80 thousand. However, since last September, it has not even been able to capture the village of Sinkovka, ten kilometers from Kupyansk.
One way or another, if there is a real threat in the direction of Kharkov or Sumy, Ukrainian officials will warn about it. Like today The Russians do not have nearly enough numbers for the operation to capture KharkovMoreover, during the entire war they had not had to do offensive work against a city of this size. Therefore, the possibility of Kharkov being surrounded or captured now seems very unlikely. Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently expressed a similar view.
2024-05-07 04:00:00
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