– The combination of more infectious virus variants and loss of vaccine effect, will undoubtedly lead to more cases of infection in Europe over the autumn, says assistant health director Espen Rostrup Nakstad to Dagbladet.
New and more contagious variants of the coronavirus may be on the way to take over in Norway. The Omikron variant BA.5 has already taken over in Portugal, as follows Dagbladet wrote about this weekend.
Omikron variant increases
– Will take over
– It looks like BA. The 5 variant is on the rise in several European countries now, but it can take many weeks before it makes up the majority of cases in Europe, says Nakstad.
He believes that within three months this variant will be the dominant one in Europe.
– We will probably get more BA. 5 cases in Norway in the next few weeks and fewer who are infected with BA. The 2 variant that has dominated so far in 2022. A BA can quickly emerge. 6- or BA. 7-variant as well, before we get to Christmas, says Nakstad.
Flattened out
The Covid-19 epidemic is no longer diminishing, but has leveled off at a low level, according to the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) in its latest weekly report published on Wednesday 8 May.
The weekly report is now published every other week, and the latest report is for weeks 21 and 22.
– The trend for the covid-19 epidemic is that it has probably leveled off since the beginning of May, writes FHI.
The number of admissions has also flattened out – they are no longer falling. In week 21, 75 new patients were admitted with covid-19 as the main cause. Last week the number was 80.
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“There is still a risk of new waves of covid-19 with omicron-like variants that are now seen in some other countries,” writes FHI.
There is also a risk that completely new variants may arise that current vaccines have a worse effect on.
Preben Aavitsland, chief physician at FHI, tells Dagbladet that they think there would be an autumn wave of covid-19. However, they are not completely safe.
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: In the autumn, more people will probably be recommended a fourth vaccine dose, says chief physician Preben Aavitsland at the National Institute of Public Health. Photo: Tor Erik Schrøder / NTB
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New vaccine doses
On June 5, 73 percent of the entire population was vaccinated with two doses of corona vaccine. 54 percent have received the third dose.
– Most have had two or three vaccine doses and one infection. They then have good protection against serious illness, but not necessarily against becoming infected. It may be relevant with a fourth vaccine dose for the elderly, says Aavitsland.
FHI is likely to recommend a fourth dose to those over 65 a fourth dose in the autumn. Those over 18 with an increased risk are probably also recommended a fourth dose.
– We have enough vaccines and can quickly get more. We will probably use the vaccines we have good experience with, ie Comirnaty (Pfizer) and Spikevax (Moderna), says Aavitsland in FHI.
Will provide protection
This winter we had a wave of omikron BA. 2 in Norway. Frode Forland, director of infection control at FHI, has previously stated to Dagbladet that it will give us some protection against new varieties of omicron.
– We see a small increase in BA.5 also in Norway. It is probably those who have not had BA.2 who get it now, Forland has previously stated to Dagbladet.
Espen Rostrup Nakstad in the Norwegian Directorate of Health predicts an autumn wave:
– I will not be surprised if we get a wave of infection beyond the autumn of 2022, but it is the consequences of this that will be decisive for which test regime and what advice we will give the population, he says.
FORECASTING AUTUMN WAVE: Espen Nakstad, assistant director of the Norwegian Directorate of Health will not be surprised if we get an autumn wave of covid-19. Photo: Nina Hansen / DAGBLADET
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More contagious
If there is a new wave of infections in the autumn, we have plenty of rapid tests and registration systems in place to be able to follow the development, Nakstad believes.
– For the time being, it seems that both vaccines and reviewed disease protect against the BA.5 variant, but we know that immunity is lost over time and that more people can become ill for that reason if the spread becomes large, Nakstad says.
BA.2 is the variant that is still dominant in most countries in the world, says Nakstad.
– Data from South Africa in the last four months indicate that BA. 4- and BA. The 5 variants are significantly more contagious than the BA.2 variant. In South Africa, the new varieties took over during the month of February and March and brought the country into a fifth wave of infection, says Nakstad.
BA.5 is the variant that seems to increase most in Europe now.
– The most crucial thing for us is whether this leads to more serious cases of illness in the Norwegian population and how it may affect the health service, says Nakstad.
He emphasizes that both those in the Norwegian Directorate of Health and NIPH follow it closely.
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