/ world in the present day information/ To this point, 8 political events and coalitions have an opportunity within the early parliamentary elections in Slovakia on September 30 this yr. In keeping with the September survey by the Ipsos polling company, the “Smer ( = Path) – Social Democracy” social gathering of former Prime Minister Robert Fico, with greater than 20% recognition, had a lead of 3-4% over “Progressive Slovakia”, till now a non-parliamentary motion. created 17-18 years after Smer.
„route” is a center-left social democratic social gathering since 1999, with an unchanged chief, Fico. Smer has gained each parliamentary election since 2006 with 29-44% of the vote, however has not at all times been capable of finding coalition associate(s). Robert Fitzow was prime minister from 2006-10 (coinciding with my time period in Bratislava) and from 2012-18. He was compelled to resign in 2018 after the killing of an investigative journalist, which sparked mass protests partly fueled by and from political detractors not solely within the nation. They “didn’t perceive”, for instance, why Slovakia didn’t need to ratify the Istanbul Conference and why the rulers within the SR expressed a desire for buying the Swedish SAAB JAS 39 “Gripen” multirole fighters as an alternative of the F-16 (or F-35 for the Czech Republic). .
The brand new governments within the former CSFR have reconsidered their intentions…
In keeping with the Bratislava-based pro-Atlantic suppose tank GLOBSEC /NPO/, Smer’s chief turned extra radical in opposition. Throughout his first time period as prime minister, Mr. Fitzo was categorized by the liberal-globalists – due to his extra balanced overseas coverage with the “giants” – as a left-wing populist. Even when he was the primary and just one within the Visegrad Group to introduce the euro, our then Prime Minister Mr. Stanishev was “distracted” to attend the solemn worldwide ceremony in Bratislava. And Smer-SD was in shame, with frozen membership in PES and no surprise Sergey Stanishev was already getting ready for his profession in Brussels.
Polls in Slovakia have lately indicated that voters are apprehensive about financial issues because of the COVID restrictions, excessive inflation linked to the navy motion in Ukraine and the rise of unlawful migrants.
In keeping with scores in “Deutsche Welle” after 3.5 years of rule by the pro-Western reform coalition within the Slovak Republic, which demonstrated a largely chaotic fashion of administration, it’s now potential for Robert Fizzo to return to energy. Nominally he’s a social democrat, however in apply he was a right-wing nationalist near Viktor Orbán. Fico has repeatedly attracted consideration with anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian messages and guarantees to utterly finish navy assist for Ukraine. The interim cupboard in SR doesn’t have many powers. Nonetheless, the pro-Western camp in Slovakia is clearly unwilling to mobilize extra voters to Robert Fico’s camp by permitting uncontrolled imports of Ukrainian grain.
Second place within the parliament in response to the variety of deputies is at the moment forward “Progressive Slovakia” (PS) with over 17% from the votes to twenty t.m. In keeping with consultants, the PS arose prematurely (in 2016-2018) across the future president of the SR Zuzana Chaputova from June 15, 2019. They declare that the PS is a member of the Group of European Liberals, ALDE, earlier than its founding congress in .January 2018, when Mrs. Chaputova was elected because the deputy chairperson of the PS, and on Could 29 of this yr introduced his candidacy for president of the Slovak Republic. By way of program, the motion strongly jogs my memory of the template of “Democratic Bulgaria”, considerably of PP and GERB. Particularly when GERB and/or its chief are in intervals of “worldwide fraternal survival”. Though the PS is the one Slovak consultant in ALDE. In comparison with the DPS in our nation, the PS, as a Central European social gathering, is extra categorical in emphasizing its priorities: pro-Western orientation, membership within the EU and NATO, safety of all potential human rights, incl. from discrimination of LGBTIQ individuals, of gypsies. Mitigating the results of local weather change, defending nature, combating disinformation, offering support to Ukraine and supporting its EU membership.
Third place in response to the survey, the social gathering would take “The voice – Social Democracy” with 11-13% of the opposite social democrat and ex-prime minister Petr Pellegrini, extra acceptable “by way of values” than Fizo in Brussels. The “Voice” is within the PES, and as of June 2020 there are 11 deputies within the parliament of the SR. All of them are former members of “Posoka-SD”, included and chosen as its candidates within the elections for the Nationwide Council of the SR (=parliament) in 2020. “Voiceful SD” defines itself as centrist left, pro-European.
Fourth place anticipated to occupy the “Republic” motion by over 8%. It’s labeled as a Slovak nationalist political motion, by some observers whilst neo-fascist. The motion has a wealthy historical past of adjusting names, exercise, orientation and applications after 2002. Then it broke away from the VAT motion of ex-prime minister Vladimir Meciar, and in 2002-04 it too passively supported President Ivan Gašparović (2004-14 ). After 2021, it’s sharply radicalized.
In fifth place within the Nationwide Council it could rank with over 8% the coalition of “Strange Individuals and Impartial Individuals” (OHNL) of former Prime Minister Igor Matovic (21.03.2020 – 01.04.2021) with the “For the Individuals” and “Christian Union” events. Within the 2020 elections, Matović gained with greater than 25%, however now a minimal of seven% is required for coalitions to enter the SR Nationwide Council, which the OHNL coalition didn’t attain in earlier polls and different comparatively extra credible Slovak companies corresponding to AKO , Focus, NMS Market Analysis Slovakia.
For non-coalitioned events or actions, the brink for parliament is 5%. In keeping with “Ipsos” and different companies, by 20 t.m. overcome this restrict extra 3 events: “Freedom and Solidarity” (liberal center-right, now once more after 2012 in opposition), the Slovak Nationwide Get together (a three-time coalition associate of Fico) and the Christian Democratic Motion (center-right conservatives).
Off board for now, they’re the events “We’re a household” of the chairman of the Nationwide Meeting Boris Kolar and “Democrats” of the previous prime minister Eduard Heger (2021-23). To your data, “Freedom and Solidarity” left the federal government coalition headed by OHNL, and in December of this yr the parliament voted no confidence in Heger’s authorities. In Could of this yr a caretaker authorities was appointed by Z. Chaputova, headed by Ludovit Odor (banker, pragmatist, near the correct, ethnic Hungarian).
From Sofia’s standpoint, it’s not clear whether or not the expulsion of a Russian diplomat from the SR on 14 t.m. it has to do with the election. After March of this yr, when Bratislava declared the Russian navy attaché and two different diplomats of the Russian Federation as undesirable individuals. This was adopted by a discount within the variety of employees on the Russian Embassy by 35 individuals, i.e. by about 50%.
***The fierce election marketing campaign in Slovakia continues. Ten days in the past, the chief of OHNL, Igor Matovich, invaded a press convention of “Smer” with insults. Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Inner Affairs Robert Kaliniak slapped him (there’s a video). Fico defended his fellow ex-minister (with a Bulgarian mom) saying that “you do not speak to a moron”, addressing Matovic. An OHNL deputy acquired a punch and was pelted with an egg within the city of Luchenets. Ms. Chaputova accused Fico of defaming her in his public appearances. He threatened to file a criticism in opposition to her for violating the Structure after the elections, earlier than the brand new parliament. Acquainted tales, proper?
**The day by day “Pravda” warns of a potential post-election “impasse” between Smer and PS. Potential acceptable companions of Smer may be “Voice – Social Democracy”, The Slovak Nationwide Get together, the “Republika” motion, however from “Glass” weren’t/”had been”/ politically suitable with the latter.
Concerning the pre-election forecasts every week earlier than the elections, I bear in mind commentators corresponding to T. Novak, who in March 2019 “suspected” the headquarters of the then little-known presidential candidate Zuzana Chaputova in a “super-professional method”. Engaged polling companies indoctrinated the voter to vote for her by way of a virtually not possible bounce in her preferences from 10% to 52% days earlier than the first spherical. That’s, with this 52%, the general public was pre-prepared for a future surprising end result. And apparently the group did not lack funds both?!
*Now the method is extra shaded, and Fizo can be a flexible politician. In current days, preferences for “Progressive Slovakia” have been rising. After the failure of Matovic, evidently for the principle opponent of 59-year-old Fizo, “provincialist by area”the chairman of PS Michal Šimechka was “honored”., 39 years previous from Bratislava, political scientist, former journalist. Since 2019, Shimechka has been a member of the European Parliament (= member of the European Parliament, i.e. MEP), and since January 2022, vice-president of the European Parliament. Apparently, the liberal-globalists are relying on a little-known particular person with Brussels features, in all probability with a clear biography, to draw extra votes, discover post-election allies and oppose the “political tank” Fico. And to present him a 3rd defeat in a row: then, when in 2014, Fico led within the 1st spherical of the presidential elections, however within the 2nd, the center-right “Liberty” (in response to Vazov) united across the millionaire Andrey Kiska. The second defeat was his compelled resignation in March 2018. Though after 1-2 years the murderers of journalists had been convicted and it turned out that that they had no reference to the ex-prime minister. And that he had nothing to do with the Neapolitan mafia. Disinformation on social media is rising polarization amongst voters and contributing to public skepticism about assist for Ukraine. And Fico didn’t fail to lately vow to veto Ukraine’s NATO membership if given the possibility. In his election marketing campaign, he identified that the battle there started in 2014 with the bloodbath of Russians by Nazis in Donbass and Luhansk, in response to Moscow’s thesis and variations. Fico additionally brought on dissatisfaction in Brussels together with his criticism of the sanctions in opposition to Russia.
However the alternative is earlier than the Slovak individuals!
****For us, the buddies of Slovakia, it is necessary that the centuries-old Bulgarian-Slovak mutual sympathies and relations will not be topic to time and the political state of affairs. The results of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Slovakia won’t change them both.
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