Prabowo Subianto, the 72-year-old former general, has emerged as the winner of Indonesia’s presidential election. Known for his polarizing campaigns and bombastic persona in the past, Prabowo has now adopted a more grandfatherly image to appeal to voters. However, despite his rebranding, political observers and economists remain uncertain about the future policies of his presidency.
While official results are yet to be announced, private ballot sampling indicates that Prabowo has decisively won the election, eliminating the need for a second round of voting. If these projections hold true, he will assume office on October 20, taking charge of Southeast Asia’s largest economy and a key player in the global green energy transition. However, there are concerns that his populist policies could strain Indonesia’s fiscal strength.
Prabowo’s victory can be attributed not only to his rebranding efforts but also to the support of outgoing President Joko Widodo. Widely popular for his economic reforms and infrastructure development initiatives, Widodo’s backing played a crucial role in Prabowo’s success. The relationship between the two leaders, who were once electoral rivals but have now become allies, will shape the direction of the incoming administration. Ignoring Widodo’s influence could be politically risky, given his high approval ratings.
Prabowo’s limited experience in government, having served as defense minister since 2019 under Widodo, raises questions about his ability to lead effectively. However, experts believe that he will not be a mere puppet of his predecessor. Peter Mumford of Eurasia Group suggests that Prabowo’s term will not be a continuation of Widodo’s policies.
Nevertheless, Prabowo has promised to maintain some of Widodo’s key initiatives, such as developing the exports-oriented commodities sector and constructing a new capital in Kalimantan. These pledges have helped boost Indonesia’s stock index close to an all-time high. Additionally, he has vowed to provide free meals and milk to schoolchildren across the country, a move that could strain Indonesia’s fiscal position.
Economists have raised concerns about the potential impact of Prabowo’s costly campaign promises on Indonesia’s fiscal stability. Fitch Ratings warns of medium-term fiscal risks, citing the meals scheme as a significant factor. Furthermore, there are fears that Prabowo’s nationalist stance could discourage Chinese investors and undermine efforts to attract investment in Indonesia’s metals sector, particularly nickel, which is crucial for electric vehicle batteries.
To realize his agenda, Prabowo will need to form a coalition government, similar to Widodo’s approach. His party secured the third position in the recent voting for national and regional legislators and is expected to lead the coalition. The success of Indonesia’s young democracy will also be closely monitored during Prabowo’s presidency. Having been involved in the military until his ousting in 1998, Prabowo’s commitment to democratic principles will be under scrutiny.
Critics have accused both Prabowo and Widodo of weakening Indonesia’s democracy. Notably, Widodo’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, was allowed to run alongside Prabowo despite being below the age threshold of 40. Any threat to democratic principles could harm Indonesia’s reputation and its ability to attract foreign investment.
As Prabowo prepares to assume office, the future of Indonesia remains uncertain. While his victory marks a shift from his previous combative persona, it remains to be seen how his policies will shape the country’s economy and international relations.