CNN Indonesia
Friday, 29 Dec 2023 16:01 IWST
The latest LSI Denny JA survey noted that candidate pair number 2 Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka was in first place with an electability of 43.3 percent in the 2024 presidential election. (CNN Indonesia/Adhi Wicaksono)
Jakarta, CNN Indonesia —
Latest survey LSI Denny AND Note down pair number 2 Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka took first place with electability of 43.3 percent in 2024 presidential election.
LSI Director Denny JA Adjie Alfaraby said pair number 1 Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar was in second place with 25.3 percent and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD was in third place with 22.9 percent.
Meanwhile, 7.9 percent of other respondents chose not to answer or didn’t know, and 0.6 percent of the votes were invalid.
“This is a pair that if there are two rounds then the pair that has passed to the second round is Prabowo-Gibran,” said Adjie in an online event, Friday (29/12).
Adjie assesses that the chances of the 2024 presidential election in one or two rounds are still a 50:50 draw. He said Prabowo-Gibran had the potential to win in one round, because their electability was only 7-8 percent short of winning.
Meanwhile, said Adjie, the Anies-Cak Imin and Ganjar-Mahfud pairs are competing fiercely to qualify for the second round if no candidate pair gets 51 percent of the vote.
“Prabowo-Gibran’s struggle is to try to win one round. Meanwhile, Ganjar-Mahfud and Anies-Cak Imin’s struggle is to eliminate each other to qualify for the second round,” he said.
Adjie said that Prabowo-Gibran’s electability continues to increase significantly. In January 2023, survey results recorded that Prabowo’s electability was only around 25.4 percent.
Then in November 2023, after proposing to Gibran, Prabowo’s electability rose to 40.3 percent. Continued at the end of November 42.9 percent; At the beginning of December it fell to 41.2, but at the end of December it rose again to 43.3 percent.
Meanwhile, the Anies-Cak Imin pair is stable and is able to surpass candidate pair number 3. In September 2023, Anies-Cak Imin received 14.5 percent of the vote. Then at the end of November it rose to 24 percent; early December 23.8 percent; and at the end of December it rose to 25.3 percent.
Meanwhile, the Ganjar-Mahfud MD pair continues to decline. In September 2023, they received 37.9 percent of the vote. However, in late November it fell to 24.9 percent; early December rose to 26.8 percent; and at the end of December it fell again to 22.9 percent.
“The survey in September was still quite significant, before the determination of the presidential and vice presidential candidates. However, after the determination of the presidential and vice presidential candidates, the trend for Ganjar-Mahfud actually decreased,” said Adjie.
The LSI Denny JA survey was conducted face to face on 17-23 December 2023 using a questionnaire to 1,200 respondents throughout Indonesia. This survey uses multi-stage random sampling with margin of error this survey was 2.9 percent.
Apart from surveys using quantitative methods, LSI Denny JA also enriches information and analysis with qualitative methods, such as: media analysis, in-depth interviewand focus group discussion.
The latest survey results released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) also note that Prabowo-Gibran’s electability is superior to the two other candidate pairs in the 2024 presidential election.
In the survey, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar was in second place ahead of Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD. The electability rate of the Anies-Muhaimin pair is 26.1 percent, Prabowo-Gibran 43.7 percent, and Ganjar-Mahfud 19.4 percent.
Apart from that, in the Indonesian Political Indicators survey, Prabowo-Gibran was ahead with an electability of 46.7 percent. Meanwhile, Ganjar-Mahfud is in second place with 24.5 percent and Anies-Cak Imin 21 percent
(kr/fr)
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2023-12-29 09:01:57
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