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PPKM Level 3 Canceled, Get Ready for a ‘Roller Coaster’ Economy

Jakarta, CNN Indonesia

The government seems to be starting to be ‘self-conscious’ in dealing with the pandemic covid-19. While the whole world was worried about the new variant of Omicron, Indonesia did not try to limit people’s mobility during the Christmas and New Year (nataru) holiday seasons.

The government suddenly canceled the implementation of level 3 community activity restrictions (PPKM) in all parts of Indonesia during the holiday season.

In fact, the number of Covid-19 transmissions has the potential to be high during the holiday season. This is because people will travel with family or friends after working for a full year.

Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Binsar Panjaitan claimed that Indonesia was ready to face the year-end holiday season. This is reflected in the higher number of tests and searches compared to last year.

“The implementation of the PPKM level during Nataru will continue to follow the assessment of the pandemic situation according to what is currently in effect, but with some tightening,” said Luhut in an official statement released Tuesday (7/12).

President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) also does not want any isolation during the Nataru holiday. This was stated by the Minister of Home Affairs, Tito Karnavian.

“The president said that there is no need for partitions but to be strengthened in public spaces using Care to Protect,” said Tito.

Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Bhima Yudhistira said the cancellation of the implementation of PPKM level 3 in all regions of Indonesia will provide positive sentiment for the domestic economy. People will be confident to shop because there are no restrictions in public spaces.

“Sectors related to retail, wholesale trade, transportation, and tourism support are estimated to be able to record a better turnover than 2020,” Bhima said. CNNIndonesia.com.

He even projects that the economy in the fourth quarter of 2021 will penetrate 4 percent. The figure grows when compared to the third quarter of 2021 which is in the range of 3 percent.

But don’t be happy just yet. The cancellation of the implementation of PPKM level 3 could boomerang for the government.

Emergency PPKM Risk

If there is a spike in cases due to large crowds of people in many places, the government must be prepared to re-implement emergency PPKM such as last July-August 2021 to suppress cases of Covid-19 transmission.

“We also need to be careful about the Omicron variant. If we are careless, the risk of a spike in cases after the Nataru holiday could blunder into economic recovery,” said Bhima.

According to Bhima, if there is a surge in cases of Covid-19 transmission, the impact will be felt in the first quarter of 2022. Plus, household consumption also tends to slow down at the beginning of each year.

“So there will be additional challenges if the daily cases (covid-19) increase,” added Bhima.

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