As of 3:00 p.m. on the 2nd (Monday), powerful Typhoon No. 14 (Koinu) is moving northwest to the east of the Philippines. The typhoon continues to develop and has become a large typhoon.
It is predicted that it will continue to strengthen its power and become a very strong force tomorrow, the 3rd (Tuesday). Please be aware of the effects of typhoons and autumn rain fronts in Okinawa and Amami.
▼Typhoon No.14 October 2nd (Monday) 15:00
Center location East of the Philippines
Size class large
strength class strong
Movement northwest 15 km/h
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed 40 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 60 m/s
» Latest typhoon information
Okinawa main island and Amami also need to be careful of heavy rain
Typhoon No. 14 is expected to further develop and move northward south of Okinawa, before gradually changing course to the west.
It is expected to become a very strong typhoon tomorrow, the 3rd (Tuesday), with a central pressure of 940 hPa.
In the Sakishima Islands of Okinawa, the rain and wind will increase from the 3rd (Tuesday) to the 5th (Thursday), and there is a risk of stormy weather, so vigilance is required. The waves will be high, so please stay away from the coast.
If the typhoon passes northward within the forecast circle that indicates the width of its path, there is a risk that the impact will be even greater.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)
Rain cloud forecast
Additionally, since the autumn rain front will be stationary in the area north of the typhoon from the south of Japan to the Nansei Islands, there is a possibility that the rain will intensify in the Okinawa main island region and Amami in Kagoshima Prefecture, which are far from the typhoon’s path.Don’t let your guard down just because the typhoon is far away from the typhoon on the course map, and please check the latest weather information.
» Rain cloud radar into tomorrow
Each thin line in this diagram represents the result of a simulation of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These members are obtained through the process of ensemble forecasting, and are shown here to illustrate that there is a wide range of possible paths.
Most members have the same tendency to move northeast, but some members change course to the east or north from around the coast of Tokaido, suggesting that their movements may become complicated.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency’s typhoon forecast, the size of the forecast circle where there is a 70% probability that the center will be in the center is 210 km as of 21:00 on the 7th (Thursday), 48 hours into the future. This is the largest 48-hour forecast circle for a typhoon to date, and it can be said that the uncertainty in the path is extremely large. Note that the size of the forecast circle has nothing to do with the strength or size of the typhoon.
If it approaches Honshu, the impact may be greater, so please pay close attention to future information.
Probability of entering the storm area of a typhoon
The following are the prefectural forecast areas where the probability of entering the typhoon’s storm region within the next 5 days is 3% or higher. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Okinawa main island region
Northern/central southern main island 1%
Kerama/Aguni Islands 1%
Kumejima 2%
Miyakojima region 17%
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island region 28%
Yonagunijima region 24%
The number of typhoons in September is the lowest on record
Number of typhoons in a normal year
This is the second typhoon to occur in September, with the only occurrence being Typhoon No. 13 on the 5th (Tuesday). This is the lowest number of typhoons in September, equaling 1951, 1973, and 1983.Although October is a time when there are fewer typhoons, there are still three or more that occur in a normal year. There are still many typhoons affecting the Japanese archipelago, so please review your typhoon and heavy rain countermeasures.
» Radar satellite cloud image mode
typhoon name
There are 140 typhoon names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Commission,” and they are assigned in the order in which they occur.
The name “Koinu” for Typhoon No. 14 was proposed by Japan, and the name comes from the constellation “Canis Minor,” a puppy dog.
» Radar typhoon mode
Reference materials etc.
2023-10-02 07:11:00
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