A storm system could affect the fall weather in upstate New York. (REUTERS/Brendan McDermid)
And storm system of great magnitude is approaching the north of the state of New Yorkpromising to mark a significant change in the autumn weather of the region. According to him National Weather Service (NWS)it is expected that the meteorological phenomenon cause intense rains starting Wednesday, November 20, followed by snowfall in higher altitude areas towards Thursday night and Friday.
It is weather event could also partially alleviate the conditions of drought that have affected extensive areas of the state. The stormwhich will move slowly through the Great Lakeswill initially bring significant rains to much of the state of New York. It is precipitationwhich will begin on Wednesday, will extend until Thursday, mainly affecting areas such as Syracusehe Hudson Valley and the hills south of Lake Ontario.
Starting Thursday night, temperatures will begin to descend, which will allow the rain becomes snow in higher altitude areas. According to meteorologists, places like bristol hillslos Adirondacks and the Catskills could receive their first snow accumulations significant of the year, especially at elevations above 600 meters.
The storm is expected to primarily affect Syracuse, the Hudson Valley and the foothills south of Lake Ontario. (REUTERS/Andrew Kelly)
The meteorologist Bob Hamiltonof the NWS in Buffaloindicated that it is likely that Rochesteritself, do not see accumulations of snowalthough some flakes in the air between Thursday night and Friday are not ruled out. However, he stressed that the forecast is still subject to change, given the uncertainty about the exact trajectory of the stormhe said to Syracuse Post.
The areas most prone to snowfall They will be those located on high ground. In particular, the Adirondacks could accumulate a few centimeters of snow towards Friday. The Catskills mountains and other elevations north of the state have a 50% chance of seeing accumulations of snow if the temperatures they go down enough. While the areas near the south of Rochester and east of Syracuse they could also experience light snowfallalthough it is mostly expected rain in those areas.
He National Weather Service warned that small variations in the trajectory of the low pressure center of the storm could significantly alter the forecastincluding the extension of the snowfall to lower areas if a more intense cooling of the air occurs.
According to the National Meteorological Service, this phenomenon will bring intense rain starting on Wednesday, November 20. (X: @NWSCPC)
In addition to the snowfallthis storm will bring between 25 and 50 millimeters of rainwhich could offer respite for areas affected by the droughtespecially in the Hudson Valley and parts of Long Island.
The deficit of precipitation has been severe in some regions of New York. For example, Poughkeepsie has received only 25 millimeters of rain since September, an amount significantly less than the 250 millimeters that normally fall in that period, reported ABC News Nueva York. According to the NWSthis lack of humidity has created conditions conducive to the rapid spread of forest fires.
Even though the rain will not be enough to completely eliminate the droughtis expected to contribute to reducing the risk of fires by moistening leaves, branches and other dry fuel accumulated on the ground.
The danger of forest fires has been a persistent problem in New York during recent months, forcing the state to declare a high or very high risk level in various areas. This led to the implementation of a state burn ban in effect until Nov. 30, which includes restrictions on campfires, outdoor cooking fires and brush burning.
He National Weather Service He also pointed out that, although the rain and the temperatures cooler temperatures will help reduce this risk, conditions will remain worrying in some areas until precipitation more significant.
Rain and cooler temperatures could reduce fire risk, although concerns remain in certain areas. (REUTERS/Brendan McDermid)
November has been unusually warm in the north of the state New York. RochesterFor example, he experienced temperatures maximums of 27 °C on November 5, a historical record for that month. In comparison, the average temperatures At this time they usually range between 4 and 7 °C.
This warm period has also contributed to dry conditions across much of the state. However, with the arrival of this stormlas temperatures They will stabilize at more typical levels for November, with predicted highs of between 4 and 6 °C for the next few days.
The uncertainty surrounding the behavior of this storm system highlights a phenomenon that experts attribute to the impact of climate change. The patterns meteorological are becoming less predictable due to factors such as global warming and fluctuations in air currents. This makes it difficult forecasts accurate, particularly for complex phenomena such as winter storms.
He NWS warned that this system has a “high potential for variation,” meaning that small changes in the location of the low pressure center could upset the balance between rain and the snowaffecting both the quantity and distribution of precipitation.
– How will the upcoming storm system affect temperatures and precipitation levels in upstate New York this fall?
1. Can you tell us more about the storm system and its impact on the fall weather in upstate New York?
2. What areas are expected to be most affected by the storm system?
3. In what ways will this storm system differ from typical fall weather patterns in New York?
4. How significant is the drought problem in New York State, and how will this storm help alleviate it?
5. What are some of the challenges meteorologists face when predicting complex weather events like this storm system?
6. How does the unpredictability of weather patterns relate to climate change, and what can be done to improve forecasting accuracy in the future?
