“Nuclear power plants are taboo.” This hitherto valid rule of military conflicts was violated by the Russian army immediately after the beginning of the invasion. On February 24, 2022, it occupied the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. What about the fact that it has been shut down for years and its strategic importance is debatable.
She followed the largest (by output) European nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia (WEIR). Occupied to this day, in the course of more than 15 months, it has repeatedly come under crossfire, faced at least seven power outages, and the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, called the situation extremely fragile and dangerous in early June. Currently, according to the interlocutors, there are fifty pieces of heavy military equipment and more than five hundred Russian soldiers.
Grossi called on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides to make a commitment that would eliminate the risk of a nuclear accident. Nevertheless, the situation did not calm down. Russian propaganda systematically releases reports that Ukraine is preparing to attack the power plant. Independent news sources, on the other hand, claim that Russia is preparing the attack.
The head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, was interviewed by the British New Statesman very specific and said that Russia was ready to detonate the charges placed at four of the six sources of electricity for the plant. Older information already talks about undermining the tank from which the reactors are cooled. In the interview, Budanov further develops the possibilities of how the Russians could carry out the attack and what their strategic gain would be.
What an attack would mean for security
According to experts, uncooled reactors will collapse within two weeks at best, and within ten hours at worst. What will follow then? Crisis information team of the Ministry of the Interior of the Czech Republic prepared the document (PDF), which clearly maps the risks.
Of course, it depends on the scale of the accident, but hitting the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia can mean:
A serious threat to the health of residents in the area affected by radiation. Intensification of the refugee crisis. Further escalation of the war conflict. Deterioration of the food situation on a global scale.
There is no direct threat to life and health of the residents of the Czech Republic. The assessment of the real radiation consequences of a military attack on a nuclear power plant will depend on the specific situation: the manner and severity of damage to the reactors and their protective casings, the functionality of various safety systems, the current meteorological situation, etc. It is true, however, that even under very dramatic circumstances only a small amount of radiation would be released after a nuclear power plant attack part of radioactive substances. In Chernobyl, it was about 5% of the fuel inventory.
If the situation were to “repeat” in the JEZ, it would be necessary to immediately implement protective measures:
Evacuation of the population within a radius of 70 km from the JEZ Hiding inside buildings within a radius of 200 km from the JEZ Iodine prophylaxis within a radius of 350 km from the JEZ
Simulation of radiation propagation in the case of westerly winds
The territory of the Czech Republic is many times further – the nearest point is the Jablunkovský promontory, more than 1,100 kilometers as the crow flies from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, Prague is 1,500 kilometers away. According to experts, radiation consequences requiring the adoption of protective measures cannot be expected even under very adverse circumstances in the Czech Republic.
Distance of the Czech Republic from JEZ
It will be worse with misinformation
The relevant Czech state institutions are closely monitoring the situation in Zaporizhia and are ready to immediately inform citizens about developments and risks. It is out of the question that the situation of April 1986 would be repeated. After the accident of the Chernobyl power plant, the Soviet government and, under its influence, the Czechoslovak government tried to cover up the information, which had a direct impact on the health of the population.
Above all, there is no threat of anything comparable due to a completely different nuclear reactor. The type of VVER used in Zaporozhye is structurally completely different from the RBMK from Chernobyl.
Therefore, the potential problem will not be an immediate threat to health, but panic and other impacts on society caused by a lack of information, or misinformation that will try to incite panic.
2023-06-27 16:47:03
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