Both the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and several international media this week mention possible Russian plans for a major new offensive against Kiev in the winter months.
– I have no doubts that they will make another attempt to reach Kiev, says the head of Ukrainian defense General Valery Zaluzhny in an interview with The Economist.
Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov makes similar statements to The Guardian. He refers to the autumn mobilization of the Russian population when he says that a new major Russian offensive could take place in February.
– This is their plan, he says.
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The analysis by ISW and the Ukrainian authorities is largely supported by the principal intelligence teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy, Tom Røseth, and retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug.
– Politically, in Moscow, there is an ambition to take Kiev. This was demonstrated early on in the war and that ambition is still there. In that sense, this is a constant threat, Røseth tells Dagbladet.
– They clearly have plans for this, agrees Dalhaug.
But none of them can see that the Russians have the short-term military capability to carry out a major offensive against the Ukrainian capital:
The newly mobilized Russian soldiers still don’t make up a well-trained army. They are also significantly short on officers and materiel.
– It is one thing to have large forces, but they must also be trained, equipped and made capable of functioning in an operational department. It takes time, says Dalhaug.
To pressurize such an offensive, he stresses, heavy and advanced equipment is also needed.
– As of right now, we have no indications that the Russians are setting up any departments with this.
– He probably won’t come until spring
ISW analysts believe Vladimir Putin’s possible motive for launching a new major offensive is to force better bargaining chips, especially after Ukraine’s successful counter-offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv.
They describe it as “extraordinarily unlikely” that such an attack would be successful.
The intelligence professor points out that threatening to reopen the front in the north may in itself be a Russian negotiating strategy.
– But I can’t see the skill. It is not possible to summon experienced military units that work well together with other units and weapons, says Røseth.
At the same time, he believes it is important not to underestimate the mobilization.
– This leads to rotation and rest for the more experienced who have been at the front for a long time. It clearly strengthens the Russians, but an effect that offers the opportunity for a new major Russian offensive will probably come only in the spring.
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– It will reduce the risk
ISW believes that a possible major Russian offensive could come from Belarusian areas, but without the involvement of the Belarusian military.
Their involvement would become so unpopular among the Belarusian population, Røseth believes, that it would spell the end of President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s regime.
He points out that activity in Belarus is still high able to have an effect on the Russians; it can tie up the Ukrainian forces, to ease the pressure in the south and east.
– Also, I don’t rule out that they attack to reach a negotiated solution, but Moscow at least isn’t there now, and I doubt they will be there in two months, says Røseth.
From the failed offensive against Kiev to the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia has explicitly focused on the eastern Donbass region.
– If there are movements there again, which I think the Ukrainians hope, the Russians will have to use their resources there. A pro-Ukraine development in the Donbas will reduce the risk of a major Russian offensive this winter and into spring, Dalhaug says.
