Yola Hashem
Central – Fears are rising in Lebanon, with news spreading about a possible Israeli ground incursion into Lebanese territory, and some have set mid-March as a deadline to begin the attack if political and diplomatic efforts to end the armed clashes and escalating tension between Israel and Hezbollah on the southern border of Lebanon fail. Are the Israeli threats real and the attack is imminent, or is it just a pressure card to gain more gains in the negotiations conducted by the American envoy Amos Hochstein to establish calm on Israel’s northern front in preparation for the return of the settlers to northern Israel?
Retired Brigadier General Naji Malaeb confirms to Al-Markazia that “Israel used the necessary force. Two divisions of the elite forces in Israel were brought to its north and conducted combat maneuvers simulating terrain similar to southern Lebanon. Hezbollah revealed that it repelled two infiltration operations in one of the valleys, but there were operations that were not announced.” Previously, it may have been reconnaissance operations for a specific ground incursion. But today, in modern war, Israel is not forced to go into land as long as it was able to create an area that became completely exposed after burning the forests on the outskirts of the border villages, after it completely destroyed at least 270 homes, at a distance of 4 to 5 kilometers from the Blue Line. Therefore, it does not need a ground incursion if it pave the way for a security-exposed area. In this way, you can obtain two gains militarily: The first is that if the missiles that are fired directly in a horizontal line, such as the Kornet and anti-machine weapons, and have a range of about 6 km, if they are fired from behind, from outside these places, they will not be able to reach the borders. Secondly, the Burkan missile used by Hezbollah has a range of between 4 and a half and five kilometres, and it is also out of service. If longer-range missiles are used, Iron Dome will handle them because they will be curved missiles. This is why we noticed that during his mediation, Hockstein no longer talked about 1701 as much as he talked about Hezbollah’s retreat at a distance of 7 km. It is true that he did not give guarantees, but he sets a kind of schedule for a solution in Lebanon, as once the 7 km withdrawal is done, the five points out of the 13 points on the Blue Line that Lebanon objects to can be discussed, and the land demarcation will be repeated. Hochstein was clear that he was reviving the maritime demarcation and ending the land demarcation. This could include point B1, which Lebanon objects to. If a land demarcation occurs from point B1, this means that Lebanon gains 38 meters of its land, and therefore the maritime demarcation may be redone. It seems that Hochstein, as an acceptable mediator, has begun to raise these issues. What concerns us militarily are the issues of the seven kilometers, the demarcation of the borders after that, and Hezbollah’s position. Hezbollah, which previously agreed to the unfair maritime demarcation against Lebanon, and we do not yet know what made it agree, may have taken into account the specificity of the Lebanese economic situation, or agreed to eat grapes and not to kill the waiter. Is it possible today to accept Hockstein’s proposal regarding land demarcation as he accepted sea demarcation and cool the front? This is a decision that belongs to Hezbollah, whether it prefers its Lebanese interest or whether it is still part of the Iranian decision, which in my opinion is the most difficult and will control the future.”
Malaeb points out, “The current Iranian decision is escalation, not calm. We witnessed an escalation in Yemen and the launching of a missile by the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces towards a “vital target” in Haifa, in addition to Hezbollah’s escalation of missile launches two days ago, the most violent, towards the Golan. There are remarkable words. Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, Deputy Secretary-General of the Revolutionary Guard, said in a lecture at Al-Hussein University: Iran’s future strategic defense must be at a distance of 5,000 km, specifying the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. This talk is very dangerous. There are harsh Iranian messages currently. What are you tempting? These messages? When escalation occurs to this degree, the Israelis escalate, as do the Palestinians and the Iranians as well. This means that we are facing a fate that is difficult to predict. Where it will be opened, I do not know. Rafah is postponed. Will the Israeli enemy open the northern front if the Rafah issue is postponed? This is a question. It is difficult to answer, but we all know that Israel intends to end this threat from the north, and it is a matter of time to carry out such an action. However, if it becomes comfortable in Gaza so that it can use its aircraft in Lebanon, it is possible that it will carry out not a ground attack, but rather a destructive message, as previously threatened by a minister. “Israeli Defense said that we will do what we did in Gaza and we will show the Lebanese that Lebanon can become another Gaza.”
2024-03-09 10:25:18
#Central #Hezbollah #accept #Hocksteins #proposal #cool #front #Lebanon #meet #fate #Gaza
