Russia seems to have suffered a “catastrophic failure” in a test of its Sarmat missile (known in the West as Satan II), a key weapon in the modernization of its nuclear arsenal, according to weapons experts who have analyzed satellite images of the launch site.
Images captured by Maxar on September 21 show a crater about 60 meters (200 feet) wide in the launch silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodromein northern Russia. They reveal extensive damage that was not visible in photographs taken earlier this month.
The RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile is designed to deliver nuclear warheads to strike targets thousands of miles away in the United States or Europe, but its development has been plagued by delays and testing setbacks.
“By all indications, it was a failed test. It’s a big hole in the ground“There was a serious incident with the missile and the silo,” said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst who heads the Russian Nuclear Forces project.
Timothy Wright, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, said the destruction of the area immediately surrounding The missile silo suggests a minor failure after ignition.
«One possible cause is that the first stage (booster) failed to ignite properly or suffered a catastrophic mechanical failure, causing the missile to fall again or would land very close to the silo and explode” he told Reuters.
James Acton, a nuclear specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, posted on X that the before-and-after satellite images were “very convincing that there was a big explosion” and said he was convinced that a Sarmat test had failed.
The Kremlin does not respond
The Kremlin referred questions about Sarmat to the Defense Ministry. The ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment and has made no announcements about planned Sarmat tests in recent days. A spokesman said he had “no information on such events.”
The United States and its allies are closely watching Russia’s development of its nuclear arsenal at a time when the war in Ukraine has raised tensions between Moscow and the West to their most dangerous point in more than 60 years.
Since the beginning of the conflict, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that Russia has the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal in the world and warned the West not to cross a threshold that could lead to nuclear war.
This is Satan II
The 35-meter-long RS-28 Sarmat, known in the West as Satan II, has a range of 18,000 kilometers (11,000 miles) and a launch weight of more than 208 tons. Russian media say it can carry up to 16 independently targetable nuclear warheads, as well as Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles, a new system that Putin says is unmatched by Russia’s enemies.
Russia had at one point said the Sarmat would be ready by 2018, replacing the Soviet-era SS-18, but the deployment date has been repeatedly pushed back.
Putin said in October 2023 that Russia had almost completed work on the missile. His defense minister at the time, Sergei Shoigu, said it would form “the basis of Russia’s ground-based strategic nuclear forces.”
A failure would not put the program at risk
Wright, an IISS analyst, said a test failure did not necessarily mean the Sarmat programme was in jeopardy.
«However, this It is the fourth consecutive failed test Sarmat, which will at least further delay its already delayed commissioning and, at most, could raise questions about the viability of the program,” he said.
Wright said the damage at Plesetsk – a forest-surrounded test site in the Arkhangelsk region about 800 kilometers (500 miles) north of Moscow – would also affect the Sarmat program.
Could you retire?
Delays would put pressure on service capacity and readiness of the old SS-18 that the Sarmat is to replace, as they will have to remain in service longer than expected, Wright said.
Nikolai Sokov, a former Russian and Soviet arms control official, said he hoped Moscow would persist with the Sarmat, a product of the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau.
He said the Russian military had shown itself keen to preserve competition between rival designers and would therefore be reluctant to rely on Makeyev’s rival, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, as the sole source of all missiles.
