Meets on Friday evening as part of the 5th matchday of the Nations League League A In the Estadio do Dragao the hosts Portugal face the Polish national team. The Portuguese were able to win three games in a row before the disappointing 0-0 draw in Scotland and thus have the chance to secure first place in Group 1 in League A by winning a point in their own country on the penultimate matchday. The guests, meanwhile, will try to finally win against Portugal again after their last success in 2006.
In our Portugal vs. Poland tip We are leaning towards a home win for the Portuguesewho would celebrate their fourth win in their fifth Nations League game.
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The Poles, coached by Michal Probierz, will be aiming for a win after last winning in Portugal in 1976. But this task will be extremely complex and will require careful risk assessment on the part of the guests, as Portugal, in addition to excellent individual players, has an excellent counter-attacking game. Will the men from Poland around Robert Lewandowski be competitive on Friday? In their Portugal vs. Poland forecast, the bookmakers are uniformly assuming a clear victory for the hosts.
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Portugal – Poland odds | 4 top tips
Betting odds as of: November 12th, 2024, 9:15 p.m
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Portugal – Statistics & Current Form
After being eliminated against France in the quarter-finals of the European Championship, they were able to start a run in the Nations League and achieve three wins in a row (2:1 vs. Scotland, 2:1 vs. Croatia and 3:1 vs. Poland). The Portuguese are now expecting the latter opponent for the second leg in their own country. The success in Warsaw at the beginning of October should of course be repeated in Porto and there is currently not much to speak against such a plan.
With 2.01 expected goals per game, the offensive, which is peppered with stars like Ronaldo, Leao, Fernandes and Diogo Jota, is statistically the second best in League A of the Nations League (France 2.12 xG). With 33.9 percent finishing precision and 11.92 percent conversion of big chances, the southern Europeans’ top offensive can On average, every sixth shot on goal converts into a goal. The result of this is that the hosts were able to score the first goal in three of the last five games, which is a great benefit to their own game, as the Portuguese have one of the best counter-attacking teams in the Nations League with France and Spain.
Portugal’s defense still shaky
Although coach Roberto Martinez wants to further stabilize the defense after participating in the European Championship, securing at the back is still a central problem for the otherwise relatively weak Portuguese. The value of 1.41 expected goals conceded per game is far too high for our own expectations and so a bit of luck is always necessary to win. Before this international break, the Spanish coach announced that the Portuguese would have a more solid defense. We will see in the game against Poland to what extent his team can implement this demand.
Portugal’s hope is Antonio Silva. The 21-year-old central defender is already an integral part of Martinez’s system alongside Dias with 12 progressive passes per game and 93 percent of duels won.
Portugal’s expected line-up:
Injured and suspended players from Portugal:
Last matches of Portugal:
Poland – Statistics & Current Form
Even after the defeat against Portugal in the first leg of the Nations League (1:3) in October and the 3:3 draw against Croatia, their own demands are met, because there will be a final on the last match day to determine where to stay, regardless of the outcome of this game in League A of the Nations League against Scotland (1 point/4th place). If Poland finishes third after six matchdays, a play-in final will be played against a runner-up from League B in order to avoid relegation.
The offensive experienced moments of light and shadow in the Nations League and it remains to be seen how this will perform in Porto. If coach Michal Probierz’s focus is more on defense, as was the case in the first leg, Lewandowski will only get a few balls up front. In the system with the 5-man defense chain last year only averaged 0.51 xGoals per game. This is usually used against stronger opponents, like Portugal.
Defense against Poland is also a big construction site
With high pressing, the Martinez team regularly tries to force the opponent to make mistakes in the build-up. However, Poland is far too leaky at the back with 2.03 expected goals conceded in the Nations League And that’s why it’s no wonder that the guests scored three of their nine goals in four games after opposing counterattacks. In order to even think about winning a point in Portugal, the Poles’ defensive line would have to have an exceptional day, otherwise this venture seems pretty hopeless when looking at the opposing personnel.
Expected line-up of Poland:
Injured and suspended players from Poland:
Last matches of Poland:
Our Portugal – Poland tip in the odds comparison November 15th, 2024 – 1/X/2
Betting odds as of: November 14th, 2024, 10:01
Portugal – Poland direct comparison / H2H balance
In the H2H, Portugal leads with five wins from thirteen games, which also affects our Portugal vs. Poland forecast. Poland has not been able to beat their hosts since 2010, with three draws and two wins for Portugal during this period. If the southern Europeans were able to win this duel, they would have twice as many wins (six) as their opponents in the H2H statistics.
Statistics highlights for Portugal versus Poland
Betting base forecast & Portugal – Poland Tipp
On paper, the Portuguese are clearly the better footballing team and are also very strong at home. After the last weak game in Scotland (0-0), the team will want to show an appropriate reaction in front of their home crowd. The opponent from Poland around Lewandowski is struggling with some injury concerns and it remains to be assumed that there will be a rotation. Against this background and the fact that Poland celebrated their last victory 48 years ago (1976) in Portugal, anything other than a confident home win for Roberto Martinez’s men would be a surprise.
Key-Facts – Portugal vs. Polen Tipp
- Portugal won five of the six home games played this year (5-0-1)
- Poland last won against Portugal in 2006 (0-3-3)
- Both teams have an average xGoals value of over 1.0 goals
In our Portugal vs. Poland tip we therefore go with the bet: Portugal to win & Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.50 at the top. If you would like to get a general overview of all the current sports betting bonuses at the various bookmakers, Wettbasis has put together an overview for its readers in the linked article.
Odds probabilities for win Portugal / draw / win Poland:
Portugal – Poland – Betting odds * & other interesting bets at a glance:
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals: 1.54 @Bet365
Under 2.5 goals: 2.35 @Bet365
Both teams score
AND: 2.10 @Bet365
NO: 1.63 @Bet365
Betting odds as of: November 12th, 2024, 9:15 p.m
Video: Moderator Carsten Fuß and tip specialist Marcel Niesner will guide you through the most exciting games of the 5th matchday of the Nations League with the highest value. (Source: YouTube / Betting Base)
