“In recent days, there has been a lot of talk about Russia’s response to Lithuania’s decision to close transit to Kaliningrad. Some have even said that Russia will invade the Suwalki corridor. It’s complete nonsense, of course. But we can see what Russia is looking at,” “Jurģis Liepnieks, a reviewer of political processes, shared his views.
J. Liepnieks mentioned 7 possible variants:
1. Blockade of Klaipeda port from the sea. J. Liepnieks doubts whether it will be realized. “NATO may block Kaliningrad, which means a serious escalation directly between Russia and NATO
2. Military provocation by Belarus. “Belarus’s small war with NATO. Russia might even benefit, but Lukashenko will definitely not do it,” said J. Liepnieks.
He considers both of these possibilities to be quite utopian.
3. The Lithuanian electricity system is being disconnected from Belarus.
According to J. Liepnieks, this will not cause any major problems for Lithuania.
4. Sanctions against Lithuanian transit through Belarus. According to J. Liepnieks, this too will not do much damage to Lithuania, because due to the sanctions, no transit is already taking place.
5. Attempts to re-establish the refugee crisis through Belarus. “You can try, but the last refugee crisis cost Lukashenko much more than he would have liked. In addition, the Polish-Lithuanian border with Belarus was strengthened,” recalls Liepnieks.
6. There will be mobilization in Russia. “I do not rule out this option. Then the mobilization in the western war zone can be designed to pose a military threat to the Baltic states as well. Liepnieks.
To sum up, the longer the war in Ukraine continues, the less one will fear Russia. Russia will get weaker every week and Russia will have problems everywhere – in Syria, Kaliningrad, Transnistria, Ossetia, on the borders of Kazakhstan, in Kuril everywhere … “
considers J. Liepnieks.
7. “The only thing Russia can and will very likely do is throw an atomic bomb somewhere. Yes, they can. The most likely places for such an attack are Ukraine and / or Poland. But it will only worsen the situation in Russia, not improve it. “adds J. Liepnieks.
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