“Pork and Hog Prices in China: Analysis and Forecast”

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on May 11, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.7% compared with 19.50 yuan/kg last Friday (May 5). The average price this week was 19.59 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.3% compared with last week’s 19.65 yuan/kg.

Compared with last week, domestic hog prices dropped slightly this week. According to the China Pig Network, on May 12, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 14.31 yuan/kg, compared with 14.57 yuan/kg last Friday (May 5), a decrease of 1.8%. Judging from the average price of the week, the average price of live pigs this week was 14.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.6% compared with the average price of 14.59 yuan/kg last week.

Recent pork and hog prices.Watchmaking news

According to the monitoring of Zhuo Chuang Information, on the supply side, the average weight of live pig transactions across the country this week has slightly increased compared with the week before the holiday. The release of pig sources from retail investors led to an increase in the weight of butchers’ acquisitions, and the average transaction weight across the country rose slightly. Zhuo Chuang Information monitored the average trading weight of live pigs across the country to be 122.93 kg, an increase of 0.19%. On the demand side, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises rose at a low level this week. After the May Day holiday, the terminal demand has shrunk, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has dropped to a phased low. With the increase in the number of pigs slaughtered in farms, the difficulty of acquisition of slaughtering enterprises has been reduced, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has gradually increased. This week, the operating rate of key domestic pig slaughtering enterprises rose slowly, with an average operating rate of 34.23%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points from the week before the holiday.

Minmetals Futures believes that from the perspective of slaughter, the supply has been relatively large this year, which can be seen from the large slaughter volume, high body weight and increasing frozen product storage capacity, but the overall body weight has stabilized and has not changed with seasonal trends. It can also be seen from the increase that the pigs are doing their best and there is no backlog, which provides conditions for a staged rebound in the later period. From the perspective of basic production capacity, the earliest May will continue until July-August. The supply may shrink due to the loss of pig diseases at the beginning of the year. After entering May-June, the weather will turn hot and the growth of pigs will slow down. 5-7 The price of pigs has accumulated some moderate and small rebound conditions in the month, but in the medium term, the production capacity is sufficient, and the price of pigs is still pessimistic in the middle and late stages of the third quarter, and it is still not ruled out that it will fall below the cost again. Price performance should be better after consumption starts. From the perspective of consumption and frozen products, there is no big surprise in overall consumption, and frozen products are a pressure for the later stage. In terms of policy, the spot price can be maintained at 14 yuan/kg in the first half of the year, but in the short term, the price of pigs still lacks an upward drive.

Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that next week, on the supply side, large-scale farms will adjust prices more frequently in the near future, while retail prices will be relatively stable. At present, the supply of retail pigs is still relatively large, or they are stable and normal, and there are few actions to resist the decline and sell them; there is no obvious sign of shrinking in large-scale breeding units, but there is still a certain possibility of rising in terms of mentality, so there is an intermittent boost to the market effect. On the demand side, there will still be no bullish factors to boost terminal consumption in the market in the coming week. There is limited room to increase hog slaughtering volume, and demand may continue to run at a low level, which will continue to be constrained by the supply side.

(Editor in charge: Zhang Ziyi)