Winfried Kretschmann will probably lead the Greens back into government. It is still uncertain whether he will remain Prime Minister.
© Christoph Schmidt / dpa
The polls show a clear trend for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg. It remains to be seen who can head the state government.
- Surveys for State election 2021 in Baden-Württemberg suggest a continuation of the previous coalition.
- Winfried Kretschmann does not automatically remain that Prime Minister.
- Others Coalitions im Parliament are possible but far less likely.
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Stuttgart – The state government of Baden-Wuerttemberg has been unique in Germany since 2011. As the only green one Winfried Kretschmann in a federal state the Prime Minister. As the father of the country, he has excellent popularity ratings. An election victory for the Greens is according to the Forecasts for the State election 2021 in Baden-Württemberg * still not sure. Who is ahead between the Greens and the CDU fluctuates from survey to survey.
On March 14th there should also be a close race between AfD * and SPD* give. Both parties can according to the Survey become the third strongest force in the state parliament for the state elections in 2021. Compared to the 2016 election, the AfD has so far been predicted to have greater losses than the SPD. The move into the state parliament appears for the FDP as relatively safe and for the party The left again as very unsafe.
Surveys on the state election 2021 in Baden-Württemberg
| Institute | date | Green | CDU | AfD | SPD | FDP | left | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA / Bild | 13.01.2021 | 30 | 30 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap / SWR | 17.12.2020 | 35 | 30 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| INSA / Bild | 19.11.2020 | 29 | 31 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap / SWR / Stuttgarter Zeitung | 15.10.2020 | 34 | 29 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| INSA / Bild | 10.09.2020 | 28 | 31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| State election | 13.03.2016 | 30,3 | 27,0 | 15,1 | 12,7 | 8,3 | 2,9 | 3,7 |
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Forecasts point to green-black in Baden-Württemberg again
The situation is both comfortable and complicated for the two governing parties. A continuation of the government work would be for Alliance 90 / The Greens* and CDU * definitely possible. The two parties steer up together around 60 percent of the vote to – maybe even more. Both sides emphasize that there is no automatic mechanism for a continuation of the coalition. But Winfried Kretschmann and the CDU top candidate Susanne Eisenmann According to the surveys from Baden-Württemberg, the other options are running out.
Possible coalitions according to the polls for the state election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
For Kretschmann would come arithmetically Green-red-red in question. Two things speak against the alliance with the SPD and The left*. First, the Left Party is a shaky candidate for entry into the state parliament. The polls before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg showed it to be below the 5 percent hurdle. Second, Kretschmann has always been considered the green of the more conservative party wing. That would hardly make him the man for a state government of this kind FDP * In the year before the state elections, he was also open to a coalition with the Greens. But the liberals could just as easily orient themselves in the other direction.
The CDU is allowed to Black-red-yellow to hope. For this, Susanne Eisenmann needs an SPD that focuses on the role of Junior partners wants to get in the Union. That is also a very uncertain calculation, because the Social Democrats are looking to work together with the Greens. Neither the CDU nor any of the other parties are seeking a coalition with the AfD.
As long as the forecasts for the state election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021 do not show a clear trend reversal, everything points to a continuation of Green-black down. Above all, the question that remains open is who will get the most votes and who will ultimately be allowed to nominate the Prime Minister. (rm) *Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen digital editorial network
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