Reporter Zheng Peiwen / Taipei Report
▲ Zheng Yunpeng’s support is behind Zhang Shanzheng. (archive photo)
The electoral situation in the city of Taoyuan has stalled: according to the latest poll on the elections of the mayor of Taoyuan released today (8th) by the “Confluence Poll”, if the poll is held tomorrow, Kuomintang candidate Zhang Shanzheng will receive 34 , 6% of the support, and the DPP will run in the election Zheng Yunpeng came in second with 27.7%, a difference of 6.9%. As for the People’s Party candidate Lai Heung Ling, who got 8.9%, the non-party candidate Zheng Baoqing got 8.2%.
According to the electoral poll of Taoyuan mayor published today by “Confluence Poll”, in terms of support for candidates for mayor, “if tomorrow is election day”, 34.6% of Taoyuan residents support Zhang Shanzheng, 27 , 7% support Zheng Yunpeng and 8.9% support Lai Xiangling, 8.2% support Zheng Baoqing and the other 20.6% are undecided. It is worth noting that the total support of Lai Xiangling and Zheng Baoqing reached 17.1%, which is considered a poll with a high value among the various polls.
Cross-analysis shows that 78.8% of DPP supporters support Zheng Yunpeng and only 5.0% support Zheng Baoqing, which shows that Zheng Baoqing’s candidacy did not significantly divide DPP supporters. Furthermore, nearly half of the People’s Party supporters, 46.5%, support Zhang Shanzheng and only 29.9% support Lai Xiangling.
Another cross-analysis of the area, Zhang Shanzheng in Pingzhen district got 44.6%, but Zheng Yunpeng was only 17.2% in this district; while Zhang Shanzheng in Daxi district got 33.0% and Zheng Yunpeng was only 13.1% in this district; Pingzhen District and Daxi District have advantages. As for Zheng Yunpeng, he obtained 47.7% in the Luzhu district and Zhang Shanzheng 30.2%; and Zheng Yunpeng got 46.3% in Dayuan district and Zhang Shanzheng only 20.6%; this shows that Zheng Yunpeng has more advantages in Luzhu District and Dayuan District.
As for Taoyuan District and Zhongli District, which are more populous, Zhang Shanzheng’s support in Taoyuan District is 30.5% and Zheng Yunpeng is 24.6%; in Zhongli District, Zhang Shanzheng’s support is 37.0% and Zheng Yunpeng is 27.5%. In other words, Zheng Yunpeng has to work harder in the densely populated Taoyuan and Zhongli districts, and as for the Pingzhen district and Daxi district, he has to try not to be crushed by Zhang Shanzheng.
This poll also conducted a popularity survey: during re-election, Zhang Shanzheng’s popularity was 42.2%, Zheng Yunpeng 41.0%, Zheng Baoqing 21.5%, Lai Xiangling 13.7% and the other 45.3% had no opinions. It is worth noting that the “Confluence Poll” also conducted a poll on this on 12 August. At that time, Zhang Shanzheng’s popularity was 36.3%, showing that Zhang Shanzheng’s popularity has increased 5.9% in the past two months. At the same time, this survey also conducted a survey on the degree of optimism: Zhang Shanzheng was optimistic at 34.2%, Zheng Yunpeng at 31.1%, Lai Xiangling at 4.2%, Zheng Baoqing at 4.0% and the other 26.5% made no statements.
This “Confluence Poll” is an accurate market research firm commissioned by CNEWS Confluence News Network to conduct a telephone interview in the city with a stratified proportional random sampling method. The survey date is the evening of October 5-6, and respondents are registered in Taoyuan City.For the general public over the age of 20, the survey completed a total of 1,072 valid samples, with one sampling error plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The survey results are weighted on the basis of the latest demographic data from the Ministry of the Interior, with regard to family membership, gender, age and level of education.
