Just weeks before the presentation of the team of ministers of the Rutte IV cabinet, the three largest coalition parties are losing in the Polling Guide compared to the elections in March. This now also applies to the VVD, which for a long time seemed to evade the dissatisfaction among voters about the lengthy cabinet formation.
Although the party of outgoing Prime Minister Rutte is still the largest, it now has 28 to 34 seats in parliament, where there are in October were still 34 to 38.
D66 seems to be scribbling something up in the last Polling Guide of the year. But the Democrats are still no further than 17 to 23 seats; about 4 less than the 24 they now have in the House. The Polling Indicator is a weighted average of the seat polls by I&O Research, Ipsos/EenVandaag and Kantar.
omtzigt
The biggest losses are still suffered by the CDA, which already had to take a step back to 15 seats in the elections in March and now has 6 to 10 seats left. The only coalition party that is not in the negative is the ChristenUnie, which remains unchanged at 4 to 6 seats.
Political scientist Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Polling Indicator, points out that the CDA already lost ground in the polls around the summer as a result of internal struggles and in particular the departure of Pieter Omtzigt. “Since then, it has not been possible to regain seats. Few people would have believed that ten years ago, that this classic governing party would have exactly the same number of seats as the Party for the Animals at the end of 2021.”
Parties that benefit from the coalition’s reduced popularity include newcomers to the House of Representatives such as JA21, BBB and Volt. All three will increase to 5 to 9 seats. The PVV remains the third party in the country after the VVD and D66 with 16 to 20 seats.
‘Coalition agreement too left’
Louwerse sees movement on the right side of the political spectrum, where some of the VVD voters, according to research by I&O Research Rutte accuses us of shifting too much to the left. Ipsos/Eenvandaag also finds that dropping VVD voters the coalition agreement to find on the left. According to the same Ipsos, those VVD members swerve, among other things to JA21, the party of, among others, Joost Eerdmans.
–
