Reporter Zheng Peiwen / Taipei Report
▲ Zhang Shanzheng lost the Blue Camp big ticket position, Zheng Yunpeng Zhongli won 14.2%.
In response to the election of the “four-legged governor” for the mayor of Taoyuan, the China Asia-Pacific Elite Exchange Association released the latest poll today (19). Overall, Zheng Yunpeng’s support in the leading group is 29.7% and Zhang Shanzheng’s support is 28.9%. The two sides are tied within the margin of error; however, cross-analysis shows that Zhang Shanzheng is far behind in the Zhongli District, a traditional blue ticket warehouse Zheng Yunpeng field, it is worth noting.
According to the cross-analysis of legislative constituencies, Zheng Yunpeng’s support for the first constituency (Luzhu district, Guishan district and some Taoyuan districts) is 36.3%, 19.8% more than that of Zhang Shanzheng; and this same district is the legislature of Zheng Yunpeng constituency This result is not surprising. The second constituency (Dayuan District, Yangmei District, Xinwu District, Guanyin District), Zheng Yunpeng’s support rate is 24.1%, behind Zhang Shanzheng’s 31.3%; this district is the constituency of Zheng Yunpeng election director general Huang Shijie.
It is worth noting that, as the third constituency (Zhongli District) of the traditional blue camp, Zheng Yunpeng’s support rate reached 36.4%, which is more than 14.2 percentage points higher than the 22 , 2% of Zhang Shanzheng. The population of this district reaches 420,000, it is the second largest city in Taoyuan and is also the constituency of President Qiu Yisheng, president of the Zhang Shanzheng Support Association, and the constituency of Lu Mingzhe, president of Zhang Shanzheng Southern . District He was successfully recalled in 2021. Wang Haoyu, showing how dark the local area is, is now embarrassed to lose to Zheng Yunpeng.
Why Zhang Shanzheng falls behind Zheng Yunpeng in the Zhongli district, the Blue Camp ticket department, is actually a clue. At the opening ceremony of the Zhang Shanzheng Northern District Campaign Headquarters, Qiu Yisheng and Lu Mingzhe, two auxiliary heavyweight candidates, did not show up. The media cited people familiar with the analysis, which may have something to do with factional conflicts and internal strife; party president Zhu Lilun strongly denied this, believing it was the outside world trying to find a needle.
Subsequently, the fourth constituency (Taoyuan district) is the largest city in Taoyuan. Zheng Yunpeng’s support here is 26.9% and that of Zhang Shanzheng 29.1%. Good governance maintains a certain advantage, but not by much. As for the fifth constituency (Pingzhen district and Longtan district), Zheng Yunpeng’s support rate is 31.7%, behind Zhang Shanzheng’s 39%. Finally, the sixth college (Bade District, Daxi District, Fuxing District) has 24.4% support for Zheng Yunpeng, behind Zhang Shanzheng’s 32.4%. The legislator of this district is Zhao Zhengyu, who has no members. of a party.
This election interview will be conducted from September 14 to September 15, 2022. This time, we successfully interviewed 1,007 people over the age of 20 who are eligible to vote in Taoyuan City. Taking the Taoyuan city phone number as the matrix, the sampling error is plus or minus 3.09% at the 95% confidence level. The survey data were weighted by gender, age and region of the respondents after the sample representativeness test.
–
