Poll guide: VVD, PVV and GL-PvdA in the race to become the largest

A day before the elections, three parties are still leading in the polls. In the Peilingwijzer, the VVD is, just like yesterday, on 26 to 30 seats, the PVV is on 25-29 (yesterday 22-28) and GroenLinks-PvdA on 23-27 (yesterday 21-25).

Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC seems to have dropped out in the battle to become the largest with 19-23 seats. Just a week ago there was also a top 3 of parties that were close to each other, but then NSC was included and the PVV was clearly behind. Geert Wilders’ party has made significant gains in recent days, says political scientist Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Peilingwijzer, while Omtzigt has slipped and today is even more clearly behind than yesterday.

Wilders seems to be doing well in the debates, including yesterday One today-debate. At research agency I&O Research almost 40 percent of viewers voted him the most convincing debater in that debate. Rob Jetten of D66 also did well: a quarter thought he was the best yesterday.

The Polling Guide is a weighted average of the seat polls from Ipsos/EenVandaag and I&O Research, both of which polled for their final poll until this morning. “The picture today is broadly the same as yesterday. We do see GroenLinks-PvdA slightly higher, but that is still just within the margin of error,” said Louwerse.

What do the final polls say about the outcome? In a article published today Louwerse shows that since 2006 the results of most parties are very similar to the final poll. In two-thirds of the cases the difference is at most one seat. But there is always at least one surprise of 5 seats or more difference. In 2017, the VVD scored much better than in the final polls and in 2021 it was D66.

These surprises are not necessarily the result of errors in the polls, but also because there are often significant voter movements on the last day.

It is impossible to predict whether this will also happen tomorrow, and if so, who will benefit from it. It is clear that many voters are still unsure between two or three parties. Researcher Sjoerd van Heck van Ipsos/EenVandaag sees a lot more doubters than last time: just under half of the voters are sure what they will vote for tomorrow. At I&O this is even less.

Van Heck and researcher Peter Kanne from I&O both think that the strategic voter can make the difference tomorrow. They emphasize that strategic voting takes place on both the left and the right, for example, left-wing voters can vote GroenLinks-PvdA to get Timmermans in the Tower or keep Wilders out, right-wing voters can vote strategically to keep Timmermans out of the Tower.

That said, they do note that the right-wing strategic voter has a more difficult time because the PVV and VVD are approximately the same size. Because should that voter now vote Wilders or Yesilgöz to keep Timmermans out of the Tower?

“You can’t really think otherwise than that the strategic voice plays into Timmermans’ hands,” says Kanne. To immediately add: “But there is also a chance that Jetten will do well.”

He thus points to another trend in the Peilingwijzer: the fact that D66 is doing quite well during the campaign. The party has risen significantly since mid-October, and with 8-11 seats is now clearly larger than the BBB, which has continued to decline and now stands at 4-7 seats.

The BBB is now at the same level as the SP and the Party for the Animals, both of which have 4-6 seats. Behind this are CDA, ChristenUnie, Forum for Democracy and Think, with 3 to 5 seats each, followed by Volt and the SGP with both 2 to 4. JA21 (0-2), Bij1 (0) also have a chance of winning a seat in Parliament. -1) and BVNL (0-1).