Maurice de Hond’s latest poll shows some shifts. The CDA and D66 lose seats again, the PVV, Forum, SP and GroenLinks all increase one seat. The CDA is currently being surveyed for five seats, a third of the current number of seats in the House of Representatives.
The General Political Reflections have not caused an earthquake in the Dutch political landscape. However, one trend remains visible: voters of the CDA and D66 are dissatisfied with the current course. Again, both parties lose seats. D66 goes from 20 seats to 19 and the CDA even drops two seats (now stands at 5 seats). Left and right parties seem to be taking advantage of the unrest on both sides.
The shifts compared to the last parliamentary elections are large. The so-called middle combination (VVD-D66-CDA) loses 14 seats in total. Only the VVD still manages to recruit new voters and remains unapproachable in the number one position.
For the rest, the PvdA is one of the few small parties that does exceed double digits in terms of figures. With the current polls, the Netherlands currently has a very large middle bracket. No fewer than nine parties have between five and eleven seats, which is quite special in the Netherlands.
The CDA continues to fall further in the polls. Voters are dropping out en masse and the big question is what the departure of Mona Keijzer as State Secretary will do to the number of seats for the party. De Hond emphasizes that it is difficult to estimate to what extent the loss of seats is now due to her resignation. The pollster always polls his respondents on Friday and Saturday. The CDA member was only fired by the prime minister yesterday afternoon.
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One thing is clear: the CDA must quickly change course to remain relevant. The party seems well on its way to definitively label itself as a low-middle engine.
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