There are few things more valuable than the time of the President of the United States. There are elected Americans who spend an entire career in Washington without ever having a few minutes one-on-one with the occupant of the White House.
Also, when the President of the United States comes for a two-day official visit to Ottawa, it is significant.
Just to compare with its recent predecessors, if you don’t count the presence at international summits hosted by Canada like the G7, there hasn’t been too much interest in this relationship.
Thus, President Trump has never made an official visit to Canada.
His predecessor, Barack Obama, came for part of the day. He had arrived in the morning. A speech in the House of Commons in the afternoon and he was back in Washington by suppertime. George W. Bush never had time for an official visit.
To find an American president who spent a night in Canadian territory during an official visit, you have to go back to Bill Clinton… in the last century!
It is a sign of friendship for Canada that Mr. Biden is coming for two days and it shows how much he has always had an affinity with Canada. One of his last gestures as vice-president of Obama was to come to Ottawa to meet Justin Trudeau. And when he was a senator and chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, his office was a must for Canadian politicians visiting Washington.
That being said, Canada-US relations are never straightforward. Jean Chrétien had already said that the most frustrating thing for a Canadian Prime Minister was to have something to ask the President.
“You have the most powerful man in the world with you and you ask him to help you with a minor problem that has become a big deal here. And he answers you: “I would like to help you, but such a senator from such a state is really against it and… I need his vote to pass the budget…” »
Like what, it is not because we have time with the President of the United States that he is able to solve the problems that bother Canada.
Which brings us to Roxham Road. In Quebec, it is easy to believe that the subject will be at the top of the program of the meeting between MM. Biden and Trudeau.
But let’s see what the White House statement said, which listed the topics that will be discussed:
- Defense Cooperation and NORAD
- Supply chain security
- The challenges of climate change
- Regional challenges, in particular Haiti
- The war in Ukraine
- The Opioid Crisis
- And, last but not least… illegal immigration
So we’re going to talk about Roxham Road… but when we read between the lines, we’re almost tempted to add: “if we have time”.
Obviously, the Canadian side will have its say on the agenda. And it is obvious that we are going to address the question of immigration and Roxham, but we cannot think that we will be able to quickly renegotiate the Agreement on safe third countries.
Either way, Americans will quickly point out to their Canadian friends that the deal in question was struck at Canada’s behest, as part of a series of post-9/11 security arrangements.
You should also know that Roxham Road is becoming a partisan issue in the United States as well. A group of about 30 elected Republicans formed the Northern Border Security Caucus. They essentially want to politicize the issue by showing that the problem of illegal immigration is no longer just at the southern border.
It is true that the number – relatively modest compared to the southern border – of illegal crossings from Canada to the United States has increased in recent months. But talking about a crisis?
“It’s the Joe Biden border crisis and you never hear about what Joe Biden is going to do,” said Elise Stefanik, number three Republican in the House of Representatives and elected from the 21e district of New York State, which includes Plattsburgh and the trail for Roxham Road.
All this to say that President Biden has his own issues on the issue of immigration and that we must not see the Roxham Road file while forgetting this American angle.
In fact, if we can expect to see the two leaders tackle a more pressing issue, we should probably look at Haiti.
The Americans have strongly suggested in recent months that Canada should lead a multinational force in Haiti where there is a major political and social crisis.
But Canada refuses and, again this week, the Chief of Staff, General Wayne Eyre, recalled that the capacity of the Canadian Forces was very limited, especially since we were soon to double the contingent in Estonia, which has a border with Russia and Belarus.
