/ world today news/ It became clear that the rector of Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski” Prof. Anastas Gerdzhikov will be nominated by an initiative committee for president, and GERB will probably support him. On this occasion, we asked political scientists Prof. Rumyana Kolarova and Dimitar Ganev from “Trend”, as well as sociologist Yuri Aslanov from “Afis”:
1. What sign would GERB give if it supported Prof. Anastas Gerdzhikov?
2. What are the pros and cons of the application?
3. What kind of voters can it attract?
4. What are his chances against Rumen Radev on November 14?
Here are the answers:
Dimitar Ganev, political scientist: Those who do not believe in Radev are more than GERB fans – there is a chance for the professor to run for a runoff
1. Prof. Gerdzhikov is not a person whose profile can cause the definition of “gerbadzhia”. In that sense, he fits the profile that GERB was looking for. In addition, they wanted the candidacy to be the antithesis of the current head of state, Rumen Radev.
Basically, the goal of any presidential candidacy is to go beyond the result of the party itself, so everything also depends on the development of the campaign. What I can say from polls is that GERB’s electorate is hardened and motivated enough to go vote, and Prof. Gerdzhikov is not a person who will distance the party’s electorate – this is not a person who is criticized the party, nor did Borisov, but rather behaved moderately in the public space and did not take bright political positions. In this sense
the GERB electorate will not have
problem to recognize him
And this is the most important question, because in addition to presidential elections, there are also parliamentary elections. That is, GERB was looking for a person who would not allow a part of the electorate to distance itself, and this condition has been met. Prof. Gerdzhikov is a man of authority, rector of SU, and this is a different type and profile from the majority of GERB representatives. Therefore, it is also possible to attract a certain periphery, which is the other important condition.
2. The advantages are that it is not from the narrow party circles and may be able to accumulate some periphery, as well as not arouse hatred and distance the electorate. His authority as a scientist and public figure is indisputable. As for the liabilities of such an application – the most obvious thing is that it is not recognizable enough. Therefore, he will need time to establish himself – he must do an intensive campaign to increase his recognition.
3. In the first round, most of the main parties have a candidate. The important thing is in the second round what will be the effect – it is in the runoff
not to repel
DPS voters,
who are apparently in a complicated relationship with Rumen Radev, to say the least.
In addition, it should be borne in mind that the people who distrust Radev are more than GERB sympathizers. This means that Prof. Gerdzhikov can accumulate their votes. From then on, people from the democratic community who cannot accept that a person who came from BSP can become president for a second term. Although the people of this community will probably have their own candidate in the first round, they would support Prof. Anastas Gerdzhikov in the runoff.
4. It’s a complicated question and it all depends on how the campaign plays out. Of course, Rumen Radev enters this campaign as a favorite. But if you had asked me 20 years ago who would win the presidential elections, I would have told you that certainly Petar Stoyanov would have become president without any competition.
Yuriy Aslanov, sociologist: Such a candidacy should have been submitted half a year ago
1. If it is true that GERB will have a choice between several independent candidates nominated by initiative committees, as is the case with Prof. Gerdzhikov by the way – there is time, the deadline is October 4. So I don’t know if this is their final decision.
We talk like it’s their final choice, but I don’t believe they’ve given up beforehand. This could be a rumor to test attitudes, and then take advantage of the element of surprise at the last moment. But if this is their candidate, then GERB congratulates Radev in advance for the victory.
2. From the point of view of the goal, there are no advantages. With a weak candidate, this will affect their result as a party for the parliamentary vote. The idea of a party supporting a candidate for president is that through him, votes are also transferred to the lists for the parliament. And in Bulgaria there will always be something to smear everyone with. The campaign is yet to come. If there was a rule
the presidential candidate to
rise in the day for reflection,
perhaps it would be reasonable to speculate on this hypothesis.
3. Not outside the hard core of GERD. I even doubt that the entire GERD core would support it. Such an application, if they had the idea to raise it, they should have done it half a year ago. There is no time to gain popularity. Otherwise, I do not know the candidate and I do not dispute his qualities.
4. With a full month of heated campaigning ahead, there’s no way any of the candidates won’t take a hit. And this is the advantage of candidates known for a long time – they have suffered all possible blows, and in the campaign something new will not make an impression on the voters, what it has done, has done so far. A new application, unknown to the general public, will only accumulate negatives. But let’s not give up believing in miracles, that Santa Claus exists, that people will live as brothers, etc.
Prof. Rumiana Kolarova, political scientist: General of science with an undeniable sense of tact
1. This is a civic, not a party, candidacy, a clear antithesis to the incumbent president. But without being a military man, Professor Gerdzhikov has equal status with Radev – professors are the generals in science. They are on the same level, but on one side we have the army with discipline, order, weapons and orders, and on the other – education and science with humanism, logic and truth as the highest values. Just as Radev’s entire conscious life was spent in the army, so Prof. Gerdzhikov’s entire life was devoted to science and education. This is the first sign.
The second is related to the institution – Sofia University has always been the cradle of free thinking and resistance against authoritarian power, both against the Tsar and against Todor Zhivkov. Universities have this role – to be
pillar of civic culture
The academic community twice elected Prof. Gerdzhikov as rector, he is also the chairman of the Council of Rectors. He has every right to speak on behalf of the institution he heads.
For some people, statehood is associated with the army, but when we talk about Bulgarian statehood, for me its construction is very strongly connected with Sofia University. And naturally, the nomination of the alma mater’s rector as head of state is a recognition of this.
I would conclude that in every respect with the nomination of Prof. Gerdzhikov, a counterbalance to the current president is being sought.
2. Apart from the authority of his position as rector and the fact that Prof. Gerdzhikov has an indisputable scientific authority, another advantage of his is that he has a lot of managerial experience in the field of education. It is through reforms of education and science that the desired goal of modernization and transformation of Bulgaria can be achieved, to find a solution to the problems faced by the entire EU.
This is the plus, which in some ways is a minus. Because the fact that you are connected to the government, in the current situation, for a part of the voters becomes a minus. I personally, as an official minister, relied on Prof. Gerdzhikov in the drafting of key laws, without which the Operational Program “Science and Education for Intelligent Growth” would not have been possible. I am fully convinced that if you ask the current Minister of Education Prof. Nikolay Denkov, he will also unreservedly support the candidacy of Prof. Gerdzhikov, because I know that in 2014 the two of them worked together in a good tandem. But it is clear that once you have been in management, it also brings its negatives.
3. Undoubtedly, the authority of the institution is of great importance. Years ago, Radev took from the authority of the army, but I hope that the time has come when the authority of educational institutions should be higher than that of the army. I think that Prof. Gerdzhikov will attract those voters for whom education and the university have a higher authority than that of the army, and
knowledge is more important
from the orders
and discipline. Reasonable voters will vote for him. I am convinced that he has no way of attracting radical voters. After all, this is Sofia University, and Sofia is wisdom. Experience and wisdom – this is the profile of the people who I hope will support the rector of the university.
4. The starting position is guaranteed by the highly mobilized and sustainable body of voters of GERB.
From now on, Prof. Gerdzhikov will have to create his own contact with voters. What is characteristic of him is that he does not have a single, personal style. In science, not ego, but collegiality sets the norms of prestige and success. Prof. Gerdzhikov, with softness and wisdom, can offer voters an alternative to the fierce confrontation imposed by President Radev. Undoubtedly, the sense of tact and moderation are characteristic of the rector of SU, but the big question is whether this will attract voters.
according to me
very important
it will be like the figure
for vice president,
as well as the team with which the candidate will embark on his campaign. An experienced person, a workaholic who consistently imposes his positions and goals, but at the same time he is neither an authoritarian person nor a person who will impose any decisions with a firm hand. It is perhaps the strongest feature of Prof. Gerdzhikov’s candidacy. He will not lead a protest, but he can achieve success with the most difficult reform.
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