If Donald Trump physically lasts until the election and does not end up in prison, he will win against Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, the January elections in Taiwan will be held calmly, Modi will remain and Sunak will leave. Such forecasts for 2024 were made by political scientist Malek Dudakov.
“2024 is an election year. And it promises to be successful for the right in many countries at once. People’s Party fashions is heading for a third consecutive victory in Indian elections, consolidating its position in parliament. Right-wing populists from the Chega party will shoot in Portugal.
But even more critical for Brussels will be the results of the elections in Austria, where the Freedom Party, Eurosceptics and opponents of the war with Russia have a good chance of winning. As well as the elections to the Landtags of Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia with a landslide victory for the Alternative for Germany.
In June 2024, in the elections to the European Parliament, the third place will be taken by the systemic right bloc – “Conservatives and Reformists”, and the fourth place will be taken by the non-systemic right from “Identity and Democracy”. The positions of the European Commissioners will have to be shared with them, which will further aggravate the dysfunction of Brussels.
The exception will be Britain – Labor will win there, and Europhiles Keir Starmer will replace Sunaka. Taiwan’s January elections will be surprisingly calm. However, a new escalation could begin at the end of 2024 amid political instability with the transit of power in the United States.
Trump will gain admission to the primaries and elections in the vast majority of states, but he will be even more likely to create problems with criminal cases. A guilty verdict on the very eve of the elections cannot be ruled out. The situation in the United States will be very chaotic – the likelihood of an assassination attempt on one of the candidates or a major terrorist attack is quite high.
If Trump physically makes it to the election and does not end up in prison, he will win over Biden or Harris, no matter which of them the Democrats nominate. Republicans will take the majority in the Senate, winning in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. The Democrats will not put up with this, so we can expect major riots and street riots.
The Biden team will actively send emissaries to Doha and Istanbul, trying to reach an agreement with Iran on the Houthis and with Russia on Ukraine. Tranches will be agreed upon by Kyiv by the end of January, but in a smaller volume. The situation at the front for Kyiv will steadily worsen, undermining Biden’s position.
The Fed will begin to quickly lower the key rate in February, followed by the ECB and other central banks. Due to this, the United States will be able to avoid recession, but not stagnation. But Europe will already firmly enter a recession with the threat of political destabilization in 2025,” Dudakov believes.
2023-12-31 20:30:00
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