The Reuters agency even writes about the fact that the drones probably took off from the territory of Iran. “The Israelis have their spies and other persons in Iran, so this could also be related to a possible Israeli retaliation,” Čejka assumes, adding that the development of the situation will now be difficult to predict.
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“Maybe it was all, but maybe it was just a part, or maybe it’s some other game,” he speculates. “It’s still pretty much shrouded in uncertainty.”
If it really was an Israeli action, its significance would be largely symbolic – to respond to the previous drone attack, but not to cause damage significant enough to threaten further Iranian retaliation and escalation of the conflict. Another possibility was a demonstration of strength and capabilities that would deter a neighboring country from further military action.
“It could be a message from Israel: Look, we are able to fly a small number of drones into the middle of Iran to your military base. But of course it can also have another meaning,” explains Čejka.
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If it were a third party’s drones, it can be assumed that they would have pro-Israeli or pro-American interests. However, it cannot be assumed that the Americans would attack. “The Americans have made it clear that they will very intensively support Israel defensively, but they do not want to go on the offensive,” he recalls.
An attack by Iranian opposition forces is also unlikely. “There are certain terrorist-type opposition groups in Iran, for example local cells of the Islamic State, but I am not sure that they would want to connect with Israeli interests,” thinks Čejka. “It’s more likely that there will be some connection to Israel, but we don’t know exactly what kind right now.”
A divided public
Even Iran is not trying to escalate the conflict. Still, a senior official in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Thursday that Iran could reconsider the goals of its nuclear program in light of threats from Israel.
“In this tension, a nuclear bomb would give the Iranian regime a completely different geopolitical position,” he suggests. “If we look at North Korea, which has a nuclear bomb, the surrounding countries deal with it in a completely different way.”
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Iran is considered a security risk in the region, but its nuclear program is under the watch of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, the majority of the country’s population is also against the escalation of the situation.
“The Iranian public is very divided in its view of the regime and this is a long-term condition. There are many people in big cities who criticize the regime quite openly. On the other hand, there is also a large part of the Iranian population that still authentically supports him,” describes Čejka.
“Both sides know that it would not be good for Iran to be dragged into some big war adventure that might not turn out well for them at all. But on the other hand, the vast majority of Iranians, including those who criticize the regime, do not want any interference,” he adds.
The threat of all-out conflict
For that reason, even Western sanctions do not have much effect. “Rather, they lead to Iran becoming more self-sufficient,” points out Čejka. “He is in a complicated economic situation, so we cannot be surprised that he is establishing or strengthening friendships with countries that are a threat to the West – that is, Russia or China.”
At the same time, the current distribution of forces and power in the Middle East results from the situation created by the Arab Spring. “There was such a triangle. One peak is Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to which Israel and Egypt are somewhat close. The other top of the triangle is Iran and its allies. And the third is Turkey and Qatar,” Čejka enumerates.
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Its stability is disturbed not only by Iran’s ambitions, but also by Israel’s operations in Gaza, which are perceived much more strongly in the region than here. That is why UN Secretary-General António Guterres is warning against increasing incitement to violence, according to him, the Middle East is on the edge of an abyss and is in danger of being engulfed in a full-scale conflict.
“It is one of the scenarios, but I firmly hope that it is one of the less realistic ones so far and that rationality will prevail among the important Middle Eastern players and they will not want to enter into an open conflict,” concludes Matěj Čejka.
You can listen to more details about the drone attack on Iran, the real effects of Western sanctions or the current situation in Gaza in the recording of the entire interview. Hosted by Šárka Fenyková.
