By Daniel Bräuer
Heidelberg / Berlin. The political scientist Nicolai von Ondarza examines the relationship between Great Britain and the EU at the Foundation for Science and Politics in Berlin.
Mr. von Ondarza, Great Britain is running out of fuel. Now the army is helping to supply gas stations. Was that foreseeable?
That is one of the consequences that was included in the Brexit prognoses: that many workers from other EU countries have left Great Britain as a result of Brexit and are now missing – in the delivery of gasoline, in the harvest or in the health sector. Of course, the corona pandemic makes things even more difficult.
What has Corona contributed to this?
For one thing, many workers also left the country during the lockdown phase to live with their families and then never came back. On the other hand, many new truck drivers, for example, have not been able to take their exams and are therefore now not available on the market.
Are they not allowed to go back or have they found something better elsewhere?
It’s a combination of both. It is now much more difficult for EU citizens to get a work visa for Great Britain, especially in the low-wage sector. And the restrictions are higher on the conditions under which they can work, how long they can work, whether they can remain insured. As a result, it is now much easier for many to work in other EU countries.
Should the Johnson Administration have been warned?
The UK economic model has relied heavily on cheap overseas labor over the past 20 years. I don’t think it was expected that it would be reflected so dramatically in the supply that some people could no longer get petrol. But it must be said that the government has long denied the problem. The warnings from the economy had been very loud since the summer at the latest.
What could one have done earlier?
One option would be to offer short-term visas. The government has long rejected this. The second is the long-term – to train our own workforce for the trucking and other sectors and to improve working conditions so that British citizens would do it.
Are these just adjustment problems until the domestic labor market has adjusted to them?
At least it is a crisis that cannot be resolved very quickly. Great Britain will not be able to recruit this workforce in the European market that quickly, nor will it be able to replace it on its own. It is to be expected that the problems will persist over the winter. Then the question is whether the government will manage to invest enough in its own workforce.
It was about regaining control. Are the British now experiencing the opposite of that?
So far, the British population has largely supported the government’s view that many problems have to do with Corona and only partially with Brexit. The UK government is trying to convince the population that if they invest in their own labor market over the long term, these transition problems will pay off in the long run. It has not yet been decided that the population will go along with this in the long term. That depends on how severe the problems will be. What we’ve seen in the past few days has been really dramatic for some Brits. If that lasted for several weeks, I do believe that the population will blame the government with their flagship Brexit project.
Then re-election could be dangerous for Johnson too?
Then it can be dangerous for him in his own party. The next elections are not due until 2024. He is not immediately threatened as head of government. But the mood in your own party would be much rougher. Above all, the economy is demanding new visas for European workers in many areas. If things got worse, it would be expected that the UK government would have to take countermeasures at some point.
That would only be possible with a clear admission of a mistake.
We’ll see. If he manages to limit the consequences over the winter, he can come out stronger.
This narrative: We create space for our own workforce, so it’s not unrealistic at all?
At least for the time being, it will be accepted by parts of the population. We remember: Johnson was so successful in 2019 because he won many former Labor Party voters from the working class to the Conservatives. This message is aimed at them. If he can use these policies to improve low wages for the British workforce and get through it without the economy collapsing completely, then he can be successful.
And if not, is it conceivable that a future British government will want to return to the EU?
I don’t think so in the medium term. Even the Labor Party no longer speaks at all of reintroducing freedom of movement or joining the EU. In the event of a really big economic catastrophe, one can imagine that until the next election campaign a dispute will break out as to whether Great Britain doesn’t need a better, closer relationship with the EU and the internal market. I don’t consider UK entry to the EU to be an option, at least for a generation.
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