Political scientist Assoc. Prof. Stoycho Stoychev told Trud: Radev is like a consul in the Roman Empire who speaks against corrupt senators

And the grandmothers already know that Cornelia Ninova has to leave

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We are talking to Assoc. Prof. Stoychev in the hours when ITN presents its candidate for Prime Minister Plamen Nikolov, the structure of the Council of Ministers and the ministers of the parliamentary groups, from whom they expect support from IBNI, DB and BSP. He believes that the war between Slavi Trifonov’s party and the DB is real, not fictitious. According to Assoc. Prof. Stoychev, the party leaders will command in the parliament, and the ministers will carry out their orders. Boyko Borissov enters a typical role for him – a hater and a critic, and GERB must remain in opposition for at least 3-4 years.

– How long will the circus last with the Prime Minister of ITN, Mr. Stoychev?
– With the mandate of ITN the circus ended because the candidate for prime minister received it. They can no longer change it in passing. So Mr. Nikolov will have to submit a proposal to the Council of Ministers. And whether he will receive parliamentary support or not – any divination is possible. In general, in such a complicated situation so far, the practice in the Bulgarian Parliament – if we can refer to it at all – the first term is usually unsuccessful, but the third term is a government. Such was the situation with the Triple Coalition. Will the configuration be repeated? On the part of President Radev, there is a desire to somehow contribute to the formation of a cabinet, but as we see, there is no dialogue between the presidency and Slavi Trifonov and his people.

– At least there is no real dialogue …
– Yes. Therefore, I think that if the president has a role, it will be seen in the third term, because then he will have a key role to whom he will hand it over. If he gives the mandate to the BSP, he will doom it, if he gives it to Maya Manolova or Hristo Ivanov, there will be some chance to form a cabinet within this parliament.

– This reminds me of the Triple Coalition and its father – President Parvanov, who insisted that the MRF join the government …
– Yes, it was then. Now it may be without the MRF, but it will be with the BSP, Radev said that without the BSP there will be no government. And he became the father of a quadruple coalition or – two strong partners plus some streamlined support for “Democratic Bulgaria”. The MRF will join from time to time, it will help.

– How do you explain the war between ITN and “Democratic Bulgaria”? Is it fictitious or real?
– “Democratic Bulgaria” is the most experienced of the protest parties. They are ready with ideas, long discussed and debated, defended. They are politically active, some of them are not professional politicians, they have very strong civic positions. And at the initial astonishment of ITN, they literally did not know what to do and the people from DB began to give them advice and somehow took the lead. And they thought it would go on, but it didn’t happen. ITN realized their potential and the first place obliges them. They do not want to be taken on board. DB tried to take over Slavi Trifonov’s party, but failed. There is some resistance from Trifonov and Toshko Yordanov in the sense of “will these make us balms”. And the fact that they succumb to provocations are neither the first nor the last to react in this way. These people are screenwriters and so far they are used to just praising them, patting them on the shoulder and laughing at their sketches. From now on they are under a barrage of ridicule and what not. This makes them nervous and in this new role they begin to live in a new temporitum and a different reality. I think it’s more authentic than some kind of war for the people.

– That’s right, the candidate for Prime Minister Plamen Nikolov was greeted with ridicule and almost a knife …
– From the DB the approach they proposed was clear – the normal approach in a parliamentary procedure – to discuss these things in advance with the parties that will form a majority. Because a minority government must be supported by a majority. That is why they had to sit at the same table with Maya Manolova and DB ITN to discuss the policy and priorities, because these people are expected to receive support. And the names they offer must be acceptable. And in both cases – with Nikolay Vassilev and Plamen Nikolov – I have already started to confuse them …

– There was also Petar Iliev …
– Yes true. But in both cases, the others were faced with a fait accompli – give them some names and – support. And that at least makes the people of DB nervous. Even if they don’t mind the person, they say – we don’t like the way it is offered, because they make us a rubber stamp. And from there, when you are angry, you will find the candidate a hundred flaws – that he is a compromise, indecisive, and we need a fighter. All sorts of things will be found for him, it has become a practice for someone to dig through the registers to get his dissertation – is it there, is it not there, and Petar Iliev copied it.

– You are a person from the scientific community, Assoc. Prof. Stoychev. What is this title “Doctor of Philosophy of Law”?
– Philosophy can be of many things. Generally speaking, this is a dissertation in philosophy. Mr. Nikolov philosophizes on time, as Ahmed Dogan used to say. Philosophizing on time is like discovering hot water, given that it has long been discovered. The dissertation is not aerobatics, but it did take a doctorate. These things don’t matter so much, it’s just some kind of shortcut to distract from the government staff. What is important is the majority that will pass the laws, who is behind it, what is its commitment. The center of power will be in parliament, where the leaders of the political parties are. So what we were used to – Borissov commanding the Council of Ministers – will not happen again. They will be commanded by party leaders from parliament. And in the Council of Ministers there will be executors or, as the candidate-prime minister said, managers who listen to what is assigned to them.

– That is, senior officials, not policy makers.
– This is a bit voluntaristic, because most of the bills are prepared by the administration in the ministries – through the minister go to the Council of Ministers, then to parliament, etc. Obviously big policies, reforms will be developed in parliament and debated there. But a large part of the bills will come from the Council of Ministers, over which the ministers will have some control. And I will be very interested in how the administration will begin to dominate the legislative process and to what extent the parties that will make reforms will be able to realize their reform ambitions. But these are distant questions, the first thing to see is whether there will be a stable majority. Otherwise, if a loose majority is formed, I would rather expect clientelistic bills to pass, something like the Vanko 1 amendment, for one bill, for another paragraph. And no one is responsible.

– You said a while ago that “Democratic Bulgaria” is nervous. And the BSP is very calm, quite unusual. What do you think is the reason for this?
– Well, the BSP is in a deadly stupor. We have to make a distinction between BSP and Cornelia Ninova. The parliamentary group is a function of Cornelia Ninova, and its interests are slightly different from those of the party. At the moment, she has an extremely important need to participate in the government, to report some success, in order to finally justify remaining in the presidency of the BSP. Because after these losses, her stay there looks like an internal party dictatorship and gonsuratluk. And in order to justify her existence as president, it is very important for her to be an active participant in the creation of a sustainable government, to strengthen stability, to be a guarantor of national priorities and some such nonsense. And accordingly, the whole parliamentary group is working in this direction. That’s why they say – our priorities overlap 90 percent with those of ITN. How will they overlap by 90 percent, as until that day they said that Nikolay Vassilev’s program was the right-wing! Now all of a sudden – 90 percent coincidence of priorities … At the moment, the behavior of the BSP parliamentary group resembles Meglena Kuneva’s negotiating team for our entry into the EU. They signed everything just to close their heads and then we wondered why we had made any commitments and we had to fulfill them. Now it’s the same thing – everything is like ours, if only they were on the train, because otherwise if they stay out of this configuration, Cornelia Ninova will have very hard days. Because it is already clear to the grandmothers that she has to leave if she does not achieve any success. So, as Bulat Okudzhava sings, “We need one victory, we are not worth it” – we need no small victory, just to stay …

– How will Boyko Borissov stand in opposition?
– It is a bit atypical for him, especially after the last years of management. But he gradually enters a very characteristic position for him – to be a hater and a critic. This is easy to play in Bulgaria and it is very easy to win a loan. People in Bulgaria are generally used to being critical of the government. Gradually, Borissov will enter this role, it affects him very well – both personally and politically for the party as a whole. It is good for GERB to have at least one governing mandate in opposition. This is a test, because they have been in power since they were established. And one party is being tested in opposition. Second – to clear the image of scandals, of the burden of government. If GERB seriously wants to stay as a party and rule Bulgaria again, they need at least 2-3 years of rest. Otherwise, if there are quick elections and they start forming a government, something may happen, after which a year will pass and the people will stone them out. He needs a break and Borisov realizes this because he has a flair for these things. So now there are 3-4 years of opposition ahead, in which to create new parliamentary blades, to grind the people from GERB, who appear on the parliamentary rostrum and on television. Such attempts are being made. Until 1-2 years ago, only Toma Bikov, Tsvetan Tsvetanov and Anton Todorov were like that. And when Tsvetanov and Todorov left, only Toma Bikov remained. He can’t carry this whole battle on his shoulders alone. So as they are not involved in management, there are people who are grinding in this direction. All those who were engaged in the ministries will now, as deputies, have enough time to fight. In order not to ruin GERB, because the example with NMSS is still very fresh.

– What do you think is the role of the president in this whole situation?
– He has a much longer view of politics. Of course, he will play for a second term, because in this unstable environment he has neither the resources nor the opportunity to achieve anything bigger. But in any case, he will want to have influence as the most authoritative figure who can oppose Boyko Borissov. I do not know how serious his intentions are to make a constitutional reform, to try to make a presidential republic. This makes his head spin. By the way, it was spinning in the heads of all presidents only without Plevneliev. Zhelyu Zhelev talks about this at the end of his term. Everyone starts to dodge – I want to do a lot of things, but I have no powers, but I have legitimacy, because behind me are a few million votes. They start thinking these things, they are tempted. So is Rumen Radev. This thing can be developed in stages during his next presidential term. First he crushed GERB, now his second frontier is to take over the presidency again. And this is a risky game, because the most secure presidents for a second term have lost it most easily. This position gives him the utmost comfort not to be responsible for power, but to have a media platform, something like a consul in the Roman Empire, who sits and speaks to the people on behalf of the people against corrupt senators. And he drives it in much the same way. That is why it is very important for him to keep this position. And he will throw everything to win a second term. And whether he will try to make a political project like Parvanov – these are longer-term things, he will have time to realize them in the next term. During this term, do what you could. From an unknown general, he became the most liked politician in the country at the moment.

“All this – on one condition – if they choose him …”
– Yes, because it is possible to become a foul. And in the best military strategy there are some breakthroughs that can reverse the outcome of the battle.

Our guest
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Stoycho Stoychev is Head of the Laboratory for Electoral Systems and Technologies (LIST) and Lecturer in Political Risk Analysis and Counteraction to Organized Crime at the Department of Political Science at Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski ”.
His interests are in the field of organized crime, criminal markets, political risk analysis, elections and forecasting.

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