Whether there will be an Abruzzo effect is yet to be seen. However, the Sardinia effect seems to be holding up on voting intentions. But only in part: there is confirmation of the favorable moment for the Democratic Party, but compared to the broad camp of the island it is not supported by a growth of the M5S. Instead, there is evidently the anxiety of the center-right and above all of the Brothers of Italy. So much so that the party of Giorgia Meloni reaches the lowest point since he came to government.
In Supermedia Agi/YouTrend this week, obtained with a weighted average of national polls on voting intentions carried out from 29 February to 13 March, the centre-right coalition is still firmly ahead with 44.4% but loses almost a point (0.9%) compared to the data from two weeks ago. And half of the decline (0.4%) is borne by FdI, which remains the first party with 27.5% but records the most marked contraction in the majority. A minus also for the League, which is now at 8.2% and sees another tenth of its lead eroded over Forza Italia, which remained constant at 7.7%.
On the other hand, the gap between the Democratic Party and the M5S is widening significantly in the centre-left. The Dems are celebrating a figure that signals their notable rise: over half a point (+0.6%) which allows them to reach the threshold of 20%. They act as a counterbalance to the Five Star Movement, which slows down the rise of the centre-left, losing four tenths and dropping to 16%.
Avs did well with 4.2% which corresponds to the best figure since the beginning of the legislature. Costante Azione, which remains close to the 4% threshold required for access to the European Parliament.
Supermedia list
FdI 27,5% (-0,4%)
Pd 20,0 (+0,6)
M5s 16.0 (-0.4)
Lega 8,2 (-0,1)
FI 7,7 (=)
Avs 4,2 (+0,2)
Action 3.9 (=)
Iv 3,3 (+0,1)
+Europa 2,9 (+0,3)
Italexit 1,5 (-0,2)
Popular Union 1.3 (-0.1)
We Moderates 1.0 (-0.3).
Supermedia coalitions
Centre-right 44.4% (-0.9%)
Centre-left 27.1 (+1.1)
M5s 16.0 (-0.4)
Third Pole 7.2 (+0.1)
Italexit 1,5 (-0,2)
Others 3.8 (+0.3)
NB: the variations in brackets indicate the deviation compared to the Superaverage of two weeks ago (29 February 2024) NOTE: The YouTrend/Agi Superaverage is a weighted average of national polls on voting intentions. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys carried out from February 29th to March 13th, was carried out on March 14th based on the sample size, the date of completion and the data collection method.
The surveys considered were carried out by the institutes Demopolis (publication date: 29 February), Eumetra (7 March), Euromedia (12 March), Ixè (12 March), Noto (7 March), Quorum (4 March), SWG ( 4 and 11 March) and Tecnè (2, 5, 9 and 11 March). The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it.
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– 2024-03-15 09:51:52
